Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99%
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You'll sometimes see people say stuff like "Biden MUST with the popular vote by 3 points or he's toast". Not true; at 2-3 points, the Electoral College is a tossup, not necessarily a Trump win. OTOH, the Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+.
311 replies 1,442 retweets 6,734 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @NateSilver538
How is Biden winning the popular vote by 2-3 points an electoral college toss-up if
@HillaryClinton won the popular vote by 2 points (48.0 -45.9) and got shellacked in the electoral college?https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president …15 replies 7 retweets 41 likes
Comparing her popular vote victory in 2016—and corresponding electoral college loss—it appears Biden would have to win by 3-4% in popular vote for the electoral college to be a toss-up
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