So many people on Twitter seem to have teleported to November and are reporting back with the election results. Amazing! Can I please borrow your time machine sometime? Sounds fun!https://twitter.com/jeremyscahill/status/1244256711940214785 …
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I use evidence, intuition, and first-hand reporting to forecast likely future political outcomes all the time, just like everybody else, but I don't pronounce that I know with total, absolute certainty what's going to happen eight months in advance. That's preposterous
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Replying to @mtracey
Having both been on the road covering
@HillaryClinton and now@JoeBiden in 2020, the enthusiasm gap is a real thing and nearly identical--which Biden has like Hillary had.3 replies 1 retweet 16 likes -
"Enthusiasm" is just one metric, and not necessarily determinative of anything. Joe is trouncing Bernie with historic voter turnout, and by far greater margins than Hillary did. I suggest you take a close look at the Michigan primary results.
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Not talking about Joe vs Bernie. Talking Joe vs Trump. Biden is trouncing Bernie in a lot of states that Trump is going to win in the gen election. Frankly--Bernie fumbled his campaign in MI. Having covered MI/PA/WI more than any other state in 2016--once Trump brands Joe TPP
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey and
NAFTA Joe & goes scorched earth on him in a way Bernie never did--watch those Rust Belt numbers sink for Biden. He is also a MUCH worse campaigner than Clinton in debates and on the stump. He has trouble w/ basic articulation. Already, they are either tied or Trump up in PA/WI/MI
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey and
You're also focused on primary
#s when in gen election---Biden/Dems are essentially mimicking same failed Clinton strategy or courting "moderate Republicans" over progressives. They also are doing abysmally among Latinos--which Trump stunningly won 27%. If he doesn't improve1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
among Latinos and people under 40, mixed with the very real possibility the same African Americans in Detroit/Milwaukee and elsewhere stay home, Trump is going to win by similar margins as he did in 2016.
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey and
People should check out Trump's record breaking turnout numbers in uncontested! primaries....
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