I am skeptical of national match up polls this early in the race, even if the Dem has a major lead. Technically the top 4 Dems can beat Trump head to head. I don't think anyone should (or does) believe thathttps://twitter.com/JordanChariton/status/1230553551342120960 …
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Replying to @DrJasonJohnson
Are you skeptical of head to head polls with
@BernieSanders leading him in MI/WI/PA from@nytimes. You don’t think Sanders gets those 77,000 votes Hillary Clinton didn’t—particularly with more young voters coming out?https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/trump-biden-warren-polls.amp.html …4 replies 2 retweets 9 likes -
Replying to @JordanChariton
We're 8 months out. Those polls are in a vacuum. You're assuming high youth turnout and I expect voter suppression. I'm inherently skeptical of campaigns where success requires alot of new variables
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Replying to @DrJasonJohnson
Fair enough—but I don’t see why you’re not in turn skeptical about going back to the same exact well. Anyone with eyes can see Biden would lose to Trump (actually has worse liabilities than Clinton—MI/WI/PA 2016 exit polls showed trade was top issue). Once Trumps labels..
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Replying to @JordanChariton
And heeeeere it comes. One of these days someone who isn't a Sanders supporter is going to provide an empirical path to victory for him that doesn't require wishful thinking
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Replying to @DrJasonJohnson
Here what comes? Everything I’ve pointed out to you is backed up my facts and data.
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Replying to @JordanChariton @DrJasonJohnson
I actually reported on the ground in 2016 and am doing so now. I’ve spoken w/ hundreds of Rust Belt residents. Trade/NAFTA was by far the top issue and draw to Trump. Exit polls in Rust Belt states showed trade and immigration as top voting issues. Not sure how you discount this
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Replying to @JordanChariton @DrJasonJohnson
A lot of these folks had previously voted for President Obama by the way. I don’t get how you see no path when Sanders won two of the states needed to win back the WH in the primary and is polling well in all 3 now
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Replying to @JordanChariton
Unlike Hillary Clinton who was pulling in about 50 to 53% of her party on a regular basis Bernie Sanders as of now is not polling higher than about 35% of the Democratic Party. That gives me pause about him being able to unify an enthusiastic party
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Replying to @DrJasonJohnson
That is a bad-faith argument as you know
@HillaryClinton would not be pulling 53% of her party if she was facing 7-10 candidates (including former VP to Obama). If you look at top second choice for Biden/Warren voters—it’s Sanders2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
And I am a white dude so not going to pretend that racism does not play a role in electoral politics. But I can tell you a lot of Trump voters in the midwest were genuinely economically angry/desperate and loved Trump’s anti-trade message
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Replying to @JordanChariton @HillaryClinton
They were more motivated by his anti-immigrant tough-on-crime / I hate black people message. And that message will resonate just as strong in 2020 as it did four years ago especially against somebody who says that he wants to share all of your hardworking money with brown people
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Replying to @DrJasonJohnson @HillaryClinton
Not sure how you say that when a large portion of them voted for President Obama. I just think it's a false-dichotomy to say the top reason Trump won is racism. It discounts the economic abandonment/demolition of large swaths of the country
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