Pretty irresponsible by Sanders campaign manager @fshakir to endorse the theory that polls are "oversampling" older voters. Short THREAD follows:https://twitter.com/StatusCoup/status/1138508125127024642 …
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Establishment candidate like
@JoeBiden would have a wider lead over someone like@SenSanders whose strength is among younger voters? Luckily, we don’t have to ponder this because Emerson does the most evenly distributed poll I’ve found in regards to age distribution. In a recent -
Emerson poll that sampled 54% over the age of 50 and 46% under 50...Biden was up over Bernie by 8 points (not the 15-20 points other polls oversampling age 50+ voters have) Do you deny that polls like this—with a more even age distribution-show Sanders not as far behind?
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As wise
@SilERabbit remember us: Bingo Halls are easier to poll.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Nate is saying they know that effect happens and make an adjustment to account for it. Polls generally do a great job. Sanders is doing worse in the polls and I would guess has a 0% chance to get the nomination.
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Since younger voters don't vote at nearly the same rate as older voters, wouldn't it be fair to say that the universe of Dem voters who will actually show up, vote, and determine the outcome of the election is also going to be more centrist?
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Right? He literally just explain how they compensated for that. That's the point of this entire thread.
End of conversation
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