The Young Turks did a really dumb segment suggesting that CNN had maliciously skewed a poll to downplay Bernie and boost Biden. This led to Nate Silver rightfully skewering them. As a past target of Nate’s sassy trolling, it pains me to say this, but I stand with Nate
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Nate is mostly reliable when he’s talking about the pure mechanics of polling, models, and related methodological stuff. He gets dumb when he’s just opining pundit-style on random stuff
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Objecting to how media frames or emphasizes polling is perfectly fair: i've done it many times, and will continue to do so. But making specious claims about the methodology because it doesn't produce the outcome you want is just stupid. Motivated reasoning in action
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Replying to @mtracey
I can only speak for myself but it’s fairly black and white. The polls are undersampling voters under 40 (Bernie’s strongest demo) and oversampling 50+. Whatever the reason they do this is opinion—I doubt it’s sinister—My guess is laziness and also not adapting to NEW voting
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey
Trends (not accurate to still say we’re representing traditional turnout for these age groups when the younger one in particular has has record turnout in 2016 and 2018). But what IS untoward and deceitful on the part of ALL of these pollsters (and the networks and papers) is
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey
To fail to emphasize and put into context the unequal age distribution. Without it, the average person who doesn’t live and breathe this stuff day to day thinks “well it’s over Biden’s gonna win.”
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey
If you look at the new Emerson College poll—it has Biden up by 8 points. Why the smaller lead than the other polls? Because only 53% of those they polled were over 50 (46 % polled under 50). Hence, when there’s a more equal age distribution, Biden is not up by 15-20 points.
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey
By the way—this kind of polling doesn’t only hurt Bernie. Hurts Warren, Butigieg, Beto, and Harris.
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Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey
#NeverBidenNeverKamalaNeverTrump Retweeted Nate Silver
Nate and Michael agree about the skewed polls.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1128136889821581313 …
#NeverBidenNeverKamalaNeverTrump added,
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