Please tell me I'm wrong but can it not be argued that this Emerson Poll is a good predicter of a primary outcome in that older voters are more likely to vote?
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normally that would be a fair point---but 2016 and 2018 saw record turnout among younger voters
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This shows how the establishment is terrified by Bernie’s political revolution! They are trying to ignore the vast younger generation that will sweep Bernie Sanders into the presidency.
@OurRevolution@SenSanders@justicedems@bern_identity@Thom_Hartmann -
Whenever the establishment does not like something or someone, they pull out all the stops. They will fight like hell to keep Bernie out.
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Ofc you need to compare the age distribution in the poll with the age distribution in the state/region, and also control for "likely voters." The latter is why these polls get badly skewed toward the older cohorts. Generally, it's a 2x oversample of that 50+ cohort.
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These shaping techniques ("likely voters," etc.) are wrong in this cycle, because participation rates show significant increases among the younger cohorts in recent (last 3 years) election cycles. The likely voter metric is based on older data. But don't tell Nate Silver this.
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Biden polls trying to influence younger voters!!pic.twitter.com/4vgLo4GCQQ
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Nate Silver talked about this on the 538 podcast this week, calling TYT "full of shit" for pointing out this sampling issue.
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That's because Nate Silver is a shill and a hack. Hes no longer the "data guy" hes carry water for the establishment guy and whine like hes still the data guy.
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Nonetheless Biden Still Leading So I guess same old same old unless Bernie become super aggressive Hillary Wins the primary
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