Excuse me for questioning the brilliant @NateSilver538–the one who missed on Trump and Sanders rise in 2016–but his premature declaration of Biden as in strongest position to win Dem nomination is wrong on many levels 1/1...https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/amp/?__twitter_impression=true …
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2) Silver is assuming all of these candidates remain in the race all the way to Iowa and even past that to Super Tuesday. Good chance
@SenGillibrand@CoryBooker@JulianCastro and other low-polling candidates drop out before South Carolina (maybe even@ewarren). I don’t see thoseShow this thread -
Votes automatically going to Biden. Tulsi and Warren’s votes most likely would go to
@BernieSanders 3/3..Show this thread -
3) As shown in
@cnn’s poll...majority polled said they might change their mind AND they knew very little of Biden’s record in the Senate (when@HillaryClinton entered the race in 2016 she had much higher popularity before her record was examined). You wait till Biden’s recordShow this thread -
Is introduced to PA, WI, MI, OH...I’m sure they will be LOVING this pro-NAFTA, TPP, deregulation champion 4/4
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4) Biden CLEARLY has an aversion to saying he was wrong on policy. The man JUST said he doesn’t regret NAFTA. This will not end well for him in a growingly more progressive field.
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5) Sanders ground game is FAR superior than any other candidates. He is assembling an organizing army of volunteers. This is something pollsters don’t consider. This is how
@BarackObama originally outmaneuvered Hillary in 08.Show this thread -
Think Nate should take a break from excel sheets and do more traveling/taking the temperature!
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End of conversation
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