I don’t care if @BernieSanders runs as a member of the marshmallow party....BUT if the @dnc rigs the primary again, he should rip up that piece of paper and run as an independent. He would winhttps://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/700524861/bernie-sanders-signs-democratic-party-loyalty-pledge-for-2020-run?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=politics&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20190305 …
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No, he wouldn’t. I thought so too until Jeff Weaver laid out the math for me. Half of Dems would go for Dem nominee. Half of independents would go for Republican. No one would get 270 electors and election would go to the House.
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Disagree on half independents to GOP. Majority of independents lean left and
@BernieSanders has the highest favorability of any candidate in country among independents. The Dem candidate would also lose overwhelming majority of millennial voters who would vote Bernie2 replies 1 retweet 15 likes -
Well, in 2016, young people supported Bernie in polls 70%. But only 20% voted. Still I think Weaver’s calculation that no one would receive the 270 is right. Also, note majority of Dems don’t think Trump should be impeached. What does that tell you aside from Pelosi was right?
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Clinton lost 6% of the 18-29 vote in the general election compared to Obama 2012. Those are Bernie voters. Lot of young voters also COULDN’T VOTE bc of registration fuckery and polls. I’m not saying it would be easy but I think he would have a shot
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Replying to @JordanChariton @Lauren_Steiner and
I also think something Weaver’s 2016 polls can’t account for...majority of economists agree a recession is coming late this year. Trump will be rightly blamed for that (sugar high tax cuts for rich always leave a bubble). So in a 3-way Trump would lose support bc of economy
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Trump’s base is so loyal. Watch the interviews I did with Trump supporters in Delray Beach, FL last week protesting in favor of the wall. I tried to point all all his hypocrisies. They wouldn’t have any of it. Motivated by fear, just like Jane Mayer’s article on Fox says.
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I agree majority of his base is loyal—but the election will again be won or lost in the Rust Belt...which it is likely Bernie would have beat Trump in both WI and MI (both just voted blue for Gov). I was just in Rust Belt—Trump voters...especially manufacturing and union workers
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Are not as loyal to Trump—they see plants closing rather than opening as he said. And a recession coming soon
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