Great thread. A few thoughts on this. Seems increasingly likely that whatever happens next spring the Cons are going to lose substantial support, at least in the SR. Consquence both of the nature of Brexit negotiations and their choices abt how to frame them 1/? https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1030351491847122945 …
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Any deal EU will accept will involve substantial concessions, and/or substantial economic disruptions. There are no options that don't involve this. Chequers was first genuine effort to make clear the trade-offs - Cons lost support to UKIP straight away. 2/?
4 antwoorden 13 retweets 40 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
The prob Cons have is that a substantial chunk of their post 2017 electoral coalition - the bit they won off UKIP plus parts of their most Eurosceptic base - will not accept *any* deal because any deal will fail to meet their (unmeetable) expectations. So any deal costs votes 3/?
1 antwoord 15 retweets 62 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
This is, I think, one of the things that makes "no deal" more attractive to some of the more anti-EU Cons as they believe the cost they will pay for a deal is EU's fault, and believe they can convinced public of this. They are, IMO, v wrong about that 4/?
2 antwoorden 14 retweets 49 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
The truth is that the Brexit fantasist element, though strategically crucial to Con electoral coalition, is only one small chunk of the electorate. There is a much larger chunk that doesn't much care about Brexit, but *does* care about disruption to everyday life.
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If we leave with "no deal", that section of electorate will, within weeks, be very very angry with the government, as disruptions to holidays, hospital appointments, jobs, delivery of goods etc etc becomes obvoius. Voters are not patient with govts in situations like this. 6/?
3 antwoorden 16 retweets 65 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
A parallel - when we left the ERM back in the early 1990s voters who had no idea what ERM was or what it did rapidly got very angry when first their mortgage payments shot up and then the economy went into recession. Blaming Europe didn't and wouldn't work then 7/?
9 antwoorden 18 retweets 70 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen
It wasn;t Europe's fault, Major linked the pound to erm unilaterally and rate rises were the price he was prepared for us all to pay to keep it going. Once we left, they fell
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