Maybe, maybe not. Basically its just a giant pile of incomplete information, due to so many people not being honest about where they've been.
NY released contact tracing data Friday. It's what the state's PSA is referring to when saying 70% of COVID cases are traced to households and small gatherings. But that's not really true. It's 70% of cases with a known exposure source. Big difference.https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2020/12/14/ny-covid-contact-tracing-data-map-households-gyms-gatherings/6512905002/ …
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Paywall. the known unknown terrifies me. I keep seeing people saying “we did everything right, but..”. And assuming they are correct, that is scary scary.
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Although there is a difference, it is still a snapchat of what is known. Even if the proportions aren't that high it is still indicative of the lackadaisical attitude towards coronavirus and that is what the takeaway should be from the contact tracing numbers.
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I'm not saying it's worthless. There's clearly some worth: It's the best data we have and the only glimpse at the source of exposure. But saying 70% of cases come from living room spread isn't accurate.
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Do we know the actual percentage of successful traces in Monroe County? A lot of certainties about where and how spread is occurring seems to becoming from the department of health but 20% success shouldn’t lead to statements like we know its not spread through source A.
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There's no reason for people to lie about their whereabouts regarding all the other, allowed alternatives. So once these are eliminated, what else remains (except garage or swinger parties)? "Normal" socializing with friends and family.
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Maybe the term "living room spread" is a bit oversimplified to boil the problem down to the essence and make it easier to understand, because most people probably spread the virus not out of malice but because they have difficulties to adapt their thinking.
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Pretty similar to data showing that roughly 1% of known cases result in mortality. If we capture even half of total cases that takes recovery rate to 99.5%.
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