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JohnKRoman's profile
John Roman
John Roman
John Roman
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@JohnKRoman

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John RomanVerified account

@JohnKRoman

Thinking about guns and drugs, police and prevention @NORCNews |Team: @CaterinaGRoman @NPSCoalition| Writer, runner, dad/jokes |Essays: http://johnkroman.substack.com 

Washington, DC
npscoalition.org
Joined July 2010

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    John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

    A fun tale about where everyday 'facts' come from. I happened on a widely reported statistic (the number of cruise ships (16) that have sunk in the last 30 years) and thought I would track it back to see if it was real or if it was a zombie. Spoiler: eh, no spoiler. Read on. 1/n

    4:09 PM - 25 Mar 2019
    • 104 Retweets
    • 266 Likes
    • matthew.puku Marnie Dan Henry Douglas Evans /=base=/lib/jose.hoon Alessandro (140/380 figured bass exercises) Cooper Jefferson Ian Mellett ʀᴏʙᴛᴇʀʀɪɴ
    10 replies 104 retweets 266 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        You probably heard about the Norwegian Sky cruise ship that lost engine power in high seas. After 24 harrowing hours, the ship limped into port on Sunday. In the interim, 479(!) people were lifted off the ship’s deck by helicopter, one at a time. 2/n

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      3. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        If you’ve watched even one episode of Deadliest Catch, you’ve seen a helicopter rescue in bad weather, and it’s jaw-droppingly dangerous. 479 rescues defies belief. Surprisingly, only 22 people were injured. Now the question is, how unusual was this event? 3/n

        1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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      4. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        I read about this from NPR and they note at article’s end that while incidents like this are “fairly rare” that between 1980 and 2012, about 16 cruise ships sank. https://www.npr.org/2019/03/24/706328421/viking-cruise-ship-reaches-port-safely-after-mayday-signal-and-daring-rescues-at … 4/n

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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      5. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        16 strikes me as quite a lot more than “fairly rare.” It’s rather alarming. So where does this statistic come from? “A 2017 report from the New Zealand government.” OK, let’s check that out. 5/n

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      6. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        The Kiwi report is from their search and rescue (SAR) and it is a forecast of future SAR demand, which might include cruise ship sinkings. They do in fact claim 16 past cruise ship sinkings, but there’s a footnote! https://nzsar.govt.nz/Portals/4/Publications/NZSAR%20Strategic%20Documents/NZSAR%20Environmental%20Scan%20-%2011%20Dec%202017.pdf … 6/n

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      7. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        Footnote 129 identifies the source of this alarming statistic as the New York Times. Turns out, in 2013 the Times was curious how normal cruise ship mishaps are. Still alarmingly, they also note 16 cruise ship sinkings. https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/12/travel/cruise-mishaps-how-normal-are-they.html … 7/n

        2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      8. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        The Times notes that “no one is systematically collecting data of …sinking[s]” b/c the cruise industry thinks that if a lot of cruise ships sink, it might be bad for their brand. But wait, the Times has a source! 8/n

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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      9. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        Who? A retired professor who cruises (300 days a year!) and has amassed a database of press clippings, which makes him the world’s leading expert (seriously) and testifies before Congress (seriously). Let’s look at his data. 9/n

        1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
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      10. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        Here’s his data, cited by NPR, the New York Times, and the government of New Zealand: http://www.cruisejunkie.com/Sunk.html  10/n

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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      11. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        As you can see, virtually all of the nautical disasters listed here are 1) unsourced and 2) not cruise ships. They are ferries, yachts, expeditions, river boats, tenders, etc. but not what you think of when you hear “buffet at sea” and “overpriced excursion.” 11/n

        1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
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      12. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        In fact, I can only identify three in 20 years. The Costa Concordia off Tuscany in 2012, the MS Sea Diamond off Santorini (w/no one left aboard) in 2007 and the Sun Spirit in 1999 (w/no one left aboard). 12/n

        3 replies 3 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      13. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        Going back 10 more years, there was the Estonia (which was more of a ferry) in 1994, the Achille Lauro in 1994 and the Royal Pacific in 1992. The Achille Lauro was built in the 1930s and the Royal Pacific in 1964. 13/n

        4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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      14. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        So, that is maybe 6, and that’s still pretty misleading. It’s a zombie statistic. I’m not arguing that cruise ships are awesome and never, ever sink, just that you can’t convict them on this evidence (this subtweet is intentional). 14/n

        4 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
        Show this thread
      15. John Roman‏Verified account @JohnKRoman 25 Mar 2019

        Please don’t take this as an indictment of the news media or evidence of 'fake news'. That’s nonsense. Just noting that zombie statistics are all around us and to kill them, you need to destroy their brains. Cheers. FIN.

        4 replies 8 retweets 113 likes
        Show this thread
      16. End of conversation

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