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2. In 2006 (a decade ago, but most recent data we have), only about 14% of felony convictions were for drug possession (of ANY drug, not just MJ). About 20% were violence, 30% property, 20% trafficking (an ambiguous term), and 15% unclear: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf … BUT! A caveat:pic.twitter.com/dBRm0QEQE5
3. Ppl are classified by the most serious *conviction* offense, so that the 15% there for possession is an OVER-estimate and the 20% in for violence is an UNDER-estimate. Someone arrested for DV but pleads guilty to the heroin he possessed when arrested? “Non-violent drug case.”
4. We have no idea how many property and drug convictions are cases where the defendant is pleading around a plausible violence conviction, but they are some chunk of that pool. And that’s from 2006. Bet violence matters even more now—ironically, given that violence has fallen.
5. Here’s data on felony admits to prison (yes, a much different category than “convicted of a felony”). As is clear, the ROLE of violence ROSE over the 1990s and 2000s, even as ACTUAL violence fell: https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/916302758113955840 …pic.twitter.com/wc1F4Kr8qH
6. It’s inarguable that violence plays LESS of a role in driving felony CONVICTIONS as opposed to prison admits or pops (where violence = 55% of state prisoners). But minor drugs isn’t driving this either. It’s violence, it’s burglary, it’s gun charges, it’s real theft.
7. To be clear, my response to the Boston Bomber case is still “yes.” The number of Boston Bombers is so small that I’m okay with that problematic case getting thru rather than trusting the system to draw a line somewhere else. But:
8. Like with mass incarceration, we don’t want to convince ppl that a “keep the vote for weed cases” is a policy that will have much of an effect. Because it won’t.
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