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JohnDCook's profile
John D. Cook
John D. Cook
John D. Cook
@JohnDCook

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John D. Cook

@JohnDCook

Consultant in applied math, statistics, and data privacy

Houston
johndcook.com
Joined November 2008

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    1. John D. Cook‏ @JohnDCook 12 Mar 2021

      If a simulation is trying to predict the behavior of a simple mechanical system, it's probably accurate. If it's trying to predict the behavior of a biological system, or any other complex system, it's probably not.

      5 replies 15 retweets 141 likes
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    2. John D. Cook‏ @JohnDCook 12 Mar 2021

      Simulations of complex systems don't provide useful predictions. They provide useful cautionary tales that temper our expectations regarding prediction.

      9 replies 30 retweets 129 likes
      Show this thread
      John D. Cook‏ @JohnDCook 12 Mar 2021

      The point of the butterfly effect is not that you should carefully position butterflies.

      8:53 AM - 12 Mar 2021
      • 53 Retweets
      • 173 Likes
      • Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC Steffen Glückselig Its U.C 𝕽𝖔𝖓𝖎𝖓𝖘𝖕𝖔𝖔𝖓 Alex Rudnick Orange Cat Cube Basil Marte mai ! Jes Wolfe!
      5 replies 53 retweets 173 likes
        1. John D. Cook‏ @JohnDCook 13 Mar 2021

          Of course you can make predictions about complex systems, but you need to know what the limits are. Five-day weather forecasts have gotten pretty good. Thirty days, not do much.

          3 replies 1 retweet 26 likes
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        1. rohit is strangeloopcanon.eth‏ @krishnanrohit 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @JohnDCook

          We could and should probably use it more for understanding though, even if not for explicit prediction. As here.. https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/simulating-understanding …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. JF is looking up‏ @jfcloutier 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @JohnDCook @markburgess_osl

          The issue here is lack of accountability. If a butterfly can get away with causing a hurricane, what's stopping others?

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. Forsooth‏ @forsoothic 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @JohnDCook @St_Rev

          Broke: r value Woke: Lyapunov time

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Noviscient‏ @trelsco 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @JohnDCook

          Great topic for discussion. But complex is not chaotic? I think simulation may help with predicting complex systems by helping learn about the dynamics and structure through outcomes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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