Here’s a link to @ATabarrok on probability of punishment vs severity of punishment.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/09/what-was-gary-beckers-biggest-mistake.html …
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Great paper about this recently by @ajc730 and McCrary. One challenge in measuring this turns out is that year to year police employment levels can be incorrect. https://eml.berkeley.edu/~jmccrary/chalfin_mccrary2015.pdf …
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Given how much measurement error could have affected prior studies, this is yet another example of my belief that just counting things accurately is one of the major obstacles to good research.
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Interesting
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dont need to spend money on a prisons if you just shoot the bad guys.
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‘Bad guys’ is a childish term for fictional characters. Did you read too many comic books?
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Indeed. On a per capita basis the U.S. is comparatively under-policed (though note we have a very high rate of private security personnel). Yet, it's also a tragedy is that our over-reliance on arrests for misdemeanor offenses sends our jailing rates through the roof.pic.twitter.com/raDainsVGu
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Side note on the marginal crime reduction benefits of "likelihood of getting caught": we don't pay enough attention to the *perception* of risk, as this is the likely mechanism of influence. (1/2)
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Think causation v correlation point might apply here. Plus gun related & drug enforcement/criminalisation issues may factor in somewhat significantly...
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clearly this isnt proof of why crime is higher in the US, but the broader point is should resources go to increasing punishment or increasing % of getting caught.
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