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IPCC AR5 gives RCP6.0 a 95% confidence (i.e. very likely) of <3.1C warming. Sure, it is a bit old. Even the outlandish RCP8.5 is <4.8C at 95%. Am I wrong? Yes, we should prepare for improbable fat tail risks. adding
@ScipioAcheronus@KenCaldeira from branched threadspic.twitter.com/Y2d0WxrToa
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The paper that (misleadingly, inaccurately) claimed that climate change could be cheaply solved just by planting trees received the 2nd most media attention of all scientific papers. Sigh.
@CarbonBrief http://bit.ly/2NxmDeN pic.twitter.com/cwebl4ltTO
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Additionally, I (and perhaps others) have not given much attention to solar geoengineering's militarization because it seems unlikely. It is very poorly targeted with uncertain short term impacts. These characteristics make for poor weapons. 5/6pic.twitter.com/RGrSYa8kUa
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2 Even the leading effort to address the author's central critique is, to the authors, unacceptable because it is funded by rich people and fails to sufficiently alter global power imbalances. 2/6pic.twitter.com/qmrSlyWcOt
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interesting: "Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar
#geoengineering research" from Kravitz & MacMartin in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment https://go.nature.com/35P7prU pic.twitter.com/BAoi0uiJXv
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"Progressive" organizations and advocates seek to prohibit discount stores where poor people buy inexpensive food there. The advocates' reason appears to be that they do not approve of the poor people's choice of food. https://www.city-journal.org/banning-dollar-stores …pic.twitter.com/nkGvmAlFOI
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recommended: "False Humility Will Not Save the Planet ...the technological solutions that are truly effective for tackling our climate crisis are often exactly the ones that are denounced and opposed by climate activists"
@mboudry https://quillette.com/2020/01/02/false-humility-will-not-save-the-planet/ …pic.twitter.com/deD1BdcRp4
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The most striking (to me) of these great aerial photos of US land use changes are these of Detroit in 2013 and 2018, revealing how many houses have been demolished. The remaining houses are distant from one another, creating a new low-density city. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/27/upshot/america-from-above.html …pic.twitter.com/tmXGWpEEdO
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Not my forecasts IPCC AR5: "estimates of the aggregate economic impact of climate change are relatively small but with a large downside risk" Below, from a review Each point is a study RCP6.0 likely = ~3C warming Global economy grows ~2%/year, compounded https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315 …pic.twitter.com/DckvuGe5zX
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From the original article, below. The absence of "acknowledg[ing] the backdrop of hard-won improvement" limits the appeal of the environmental left, in my assessment.pic.twitter.com/ZPICDu8Yfy
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"since modern humans emerged about 200,000 years ago, 2019 was probably the year in which children were least likely to die, adults were least likely to be illiterate and people were least likely to suffer excruciating & disfiguring diseases."
@NickKristof https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/28/opinion/sunday/2019-best-year-poverty.html …pic.twitter.com/WZQJIam22k
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The center of this image approximates world median preferences. source http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp pic.twitter.com/vMHSOyDdw7
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An interesting 3-dimensional depiction of OECD political parties: -L-R is economic values -bottom-top is social values -red-green is populist to pluralist My observation: populism is socially conservative while spanning the economic spectrum via
@PippaN15pic.twitter.com/IJwkizcqxD
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Pres. Trump's popularity is the highest that it has been since March 2017. Although I believe that impeachment is the right thing to do, it will probably (slightly) work in Trump's favor. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/ …pic.twitter.com/BpU21JK77e
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Adding that, despite Trump, Americans as a whole are relatively welcoming of people from other countries. Americans' generally low level of racism is underappreciated. (Reality is complicated, of course.) Other image is from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/15/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-racially-tolerant-countries/ …pic.twitter.com/EIXGebucuK
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Annual
@pewresearch poll of Americans. Climate change is the top issue about which Republicans and Democrats disagree the most. Among Dems, blacks are much less concerned about it. Rejection of anthropogenic climate change is more common than I thought. https://www.people-press.org/2019/12/17/in-a-politically-polarized-era-sharp-divides-in-both-partisan-coalitions/ …pic.twitter.com/SxLhBux8CR
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Why treat these as either/or? Solar geoengineering research is < 0.1% of public climate change research. The former could be greatly increased with negligible impact on the latter. After all, hoping that future emissions cuts will be enough is the real "roll of the dice."pic.twitter.com/J4k60I5Lz8
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"Reaching 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol
#geoengineering" http://bit.ly/2PEohLL pic.twitter.com/tqs07m3aME
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Edith Brown Weiss on
#geoengineering & intergenerational equity: "the need for scientific research is inherently part of an intergen. strategy, if only to assess the risks of proposed actions by others, and to be able to anticipate and respond to crises" http://bit.ly/36thrj2 pic.twitter.com/OdHpBScr18
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