the math is kinda wrong fwiw @dsymetweets. Plot 1.22**n and 1.21**n. Notice that after another day or two with 1.21, your gain is erased. What you buy is not really fewer infections, but time.
(Also these are sigmoids not exp, so the slower rate does converge to the faster one)
-
-
Right. It's an approximation of what's actually been happening, eg a month of 1.25-1.3x (depending when you start), a few days of around 1.05x then ongoing 0.8-0.9x.
-
That is, what's roughly been happening in the UK as far as I can tell. The ~20% reduction still applies to a 0.01x change across that model. Compounding isn't the important part, it's the reduction across the each and every day of the time period, with early reductions accruing
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.