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Jeremy Konyndyk
Jeremy Konyndyk
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Jeremy KonyndykVerified account

@JeremyKonyndyk

Dad, baker, beer snob. COVID-19 @USAID. Personal account. 🏊‍♂️🚴‍♂️🏃‍♂️

Washington DC
usaid.gov
Joined October 2011

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    Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

    OK, let's address these "why did we lock down if BLM protests are ok" takes. There are lots of pundits arguing this means public health advice is all relative to ideological sympathies. That's not it. It's about balance of risks.

    10:52 AM - 4 Jun 2020
    • 1,463 Retweets
    • 3,192 Likes
    • Point O Five 𝓟𝓲𝔁𝓮𝓵 𝓖𝓸𝓭𝓭𝓮𝓼𝓼 𝓓𝓮𝓿𝓸𝓷 𝓢𝔀𝓪𝓷 Mũthoni Mũrĩu Davinder Brar Andy Lopata Grace O'Sullivan Kyle King The Happy Feminist Anthy 🌕👑
    236 replies 1,463 retweets 3,192 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        I'll say up front: I think there's a chance these protests will amplify transmission. But I also think there are steps that can be taken (and visibly are being taken, frequently) to mitigate that risk.

        9 replies 77 retweets 962 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        We know far more about COVID transmission than three months ago when US social distancing started. Guidance at that time was based on emerging evidence from China and on diseases thought to be similar, e.g. SARS and influenza. We now have growing evidence on COVID itself.

        3 replies 50 retweets 652 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        The evidence tells us a few things (this all predates the protests): Risk reducers: - Outdoor/full sun activities - Masking - Brief (<10 minutes) or distant contact - Limiting group size Risk amplifiers: - Prolonged close contact - Large crowds - Enclosed spaces - Vocalizing

        6 replies 147 retweets 874 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        The highest risk of super-spreading events (which we now suspect drive the bulk of transmission) are those that combine multiple risk amplifiers without the risk reducers. So something like packed bars (as in WI after their stay-home order was annulled) fall in that category.

        10 replies 74 retweets 668 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        The protests are less clear cut. They have some of the risk amplifiers: - large crowds - vocalizing As well as some of the risk reducers: - masking, which has been pretty widespread from what I've observed - outdoors in sun - some movement to reduce prolonged contact

        8 replies 76 retweets 708 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        So risks probably higher than grocery shopping, lower than going to church or a bar. Important to actively mitigate risks as much as possible. Protesters should: - stay masked - practice hand hygiene - avoid prolonged contacts in crowd - pre-emptively self-isolate for 2 weeks

        11 replies 218 retweets 1,141 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        That last bit is important. Pre-emptive self-isolation can block those who might be exposed in these protests from infecting others in their lives.

        6 replies 71 retweets 723 likes
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      9. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        ALSO REALLY IMPORTANT: police behavior can undermine the mitigation measures and elevate transmission risk. - tear gas & pepper spray can cause coughing, force people to remove masks - obstructing movement (like NYPD cordoning protesters on a bridge for hours) prolongs exposure

        6 replies 291 retweets 1,255 likes
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      10. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        - detention tactics can also worsen things - holding detainees for prolonged periods in enclosed spaces like paddy wagons or mass cells elevates risk

        5 replies 108 retweets 847 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        So then the question becomes - if the risk can be mitigated to an extent, how does the remaining risk relate to the importance of the activity itself? From a public health perspective, many experts are saying it merits the remaining risk.

        6 replies 63 retweets 616 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        Racial bias in policing is a direct and unresolved threat to the lives of black and brown Americans. As we have seen over and over. And racial bias in society more generally underpins why COVID has hit communities of color so much harder than white Americans.

        6 replies 125 retweets 859 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        So a mass public mobilization to address such deep and longstanding societal problems has important public health relevance, even if the timing is less than ideal. Unfortunately, spontaneous mass political awakenings do not happen on a pre-planned itinerary.

        2 replies 96 retweets 869 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        This is why public health advocates aren't criticizing the protests. Their advice doesn't suddenly evaporate depending on a political cause. Instead they assess relative public health risks of these protests vs continuing to accept a status quo that kills many people of color.

        77 replies 210 retweets 1,052 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        So, a plea to the contrarians out there: do your homework. Most of the takes I've seen on this (and I've quote-tweeted a few previously) are reacting to their own caricatures of public health advice, and failing to grapple with the actual dilemmas at play here.

        9 replies 65 retweets 712 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 4 Jun 2020

        The risks of protesting in the age of COVID are not totally clear cut. But that doesn't mean this should be treated as a punditry Rorschach test that inevitably ends up reaffirming everyone's priors.

        40 replies 59 retweets 716 likes
        Show this thread
      17. End of conversation

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