Seems consistent with other findings that a largely unmitigated epidemic leads to about 2/3 attack rate.
COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon?https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1 …
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French navy aircraft carrier Ch. de Gaulle got to 70 attack rate.
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Would this indicate that a vaccine that gives 50% protection would be adequate to produce herd immunity ?
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A slaughter took place in Manaus, affecting the poorest and indigenous populations in a proportion 5x greater than in São Paulo — a very high price to pay for natural immunity that apparently lasts for just a few months. 1/2
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Not even mentioning that the number of susceptible people is still high, and the existence of outbreaks among this population. Without a vaccine, herd immunity for Covid is a fallacy and a second wave in Manaus is just a matter of time. 2/2
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What are the names of respiratory viruses with a similar lethality and contagiousness to which, without a vaccine, the human population has achieved herd immunity? Been asking since March. Never answered.
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Possibly OC43? If it caused 1890 “Russian flu” pandemic? Killed equivalent of 5M today, now a nuisance. The other 3 human CVs are also zoonotic origin but have been in humans far longer so no data. Then you have 1918..immunity certainly played a part. Every pandemic ends.
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NPI introduced late March were summarily dismissed and cases drop all attributed to herd immunity. 44% seropositivity adjusted up to 66% is quite the stretch based on false negatives. That claimed level with Abbott test I've never seen.
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People seem to be ignoring that dengue can cross-react and give false positives on SARS-CoV2 antibody tests. Seroprevalence data from dengue endemic areas should be approached with caution. 7% of Manaus population self-reported dengue in 2019 alone.https://twitter.com/therealrthorat/status/1297959173284659200 …
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Correction: study was published in 2019. Manaus residents were surveyed in 2015. There are a lot of people in Manaus with dengue antibodies. https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822019000100332 …
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Wydaje się, że ładowanie zajmuje dużo czasu.
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