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The obvious question now is: how long can the peace last? The CSU got its fingers burned in the past weeks. Will it act more cautiously in the future? Or will it take Merkel to the brink again over, eg, eurozone reform?
The CDU/CSU compromise deal: 1. "New border regime" tackling secondary immigration on German-Austrian border 2. Transit centres plus bilateral deals to deport secondary migrants fast 3. Deal with Austria to turn back secondary migrants registered in states without bilateral dealpic.twitter.com/qsl2JzBdtI
Snap thoughts: the "new border regime" means tighter controls on the 5 rail lines and c 70 roads from Austria to Germany; further bilateralisation of German immigration policy (risky to multilateral order?); deal with Austria seems optimistic given politics in Vienna.
Future of Schengen may be written on the Bavarian-Austrian border in coming months: intensive discretionary checks probably using racial profiling, transit centres, fast deportations. So border-free travel can survive - for white Europeans at least.
What about the domestic politics? On the one hand the CSU have got lots from Merkel: European deals and something close to turning back secondary migrants at borders. On the other CDU have looked mature & sensible, while CSU have looked petulant & irresponsible. Mixed picture.
Merkel has prevailed politically while sticking to her red lines. But the reality is complicated: could the authoritarian precedent about to be created on the Bavarian-Austrian border ultimately undermine the liberal, multilateral order she seeks to preserve?
Under giant letters spelling out her slogan "Die Mitte" - the centre - Merkel spells out deal with CSU: transit centres plus network of bilateral deals will keep Germany's borders open without a free-for-all for secondary migrants.https://twitter.com/CDU/status/1013893501820514310 …
Politically, the question now is whether the SPD will accept the new border regime agreed by CDU/CSU (but not included in the coalition agreement of the 3 parties). Party recoils at idea of transit camps, but has committed to the "Grand Coalition".
Coalition committee (CDU-CSU-SPD) will now meet at 18:00 on Tuesday. SPD has "many questions" about transit centres at heart of CDU/CSU deal.https://twitter.com/zeitonline/status/1013910368475844608?s=21 …
Probably also risky for bilateral order. Or did they speak to Kurz already? To me this looks similar to how the last Council treated north-African states...
. the real question here is if other Länder heads with external borders to other EU states will now try and get the same deal !
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