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JeffreyToobin's profile
Jeffrey Toobin
Jeffrey Toobin
Jeffrey Toobin
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@JeffreyToobin

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Jeffrey ToobinVerified account

@JeffreyToobin

Staff writer for @NewYorker, Senior Legal Analyst for @CNN, Author of AMERICAN HEIRESS.

New York, NY
jeffreytoobin.com
Joined March 2012

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    Jeffrey Toobin‏Verified account @JeffreyToobin Sep 4

    Jeffrey Toobin Retweeted FiveThirtyEight

    Same odds that brought us President Hillary Clinton.https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1037002414535200771 …

    Jeffrey Toobin added,

    FiveThirtyEightVerified account @FiveThirtyEight
    Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House. http://53eig.ht/house  pic.twitter.com/fq6g6kanCj
    8:41 AM - 4 Sep 2018
    • 1,078 Retweets
    • 5,603 Likes
    • Rohan Thomas Lakshman Narain Katharine Catherine Bigelow Igor Garcia Diane Rydman Yvonne Casey Tina Kendrick Phyllis
    571 replies 1,078 retweets 5,603 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Andrew Paul Jackson‏ @APJacksonic Sep 4
        Replying to @JeffreyToobin

        30% and 20% probabilities are not remote possibilities. They are actually regular occurrences. No one calls it a miracle when a batter with a 250 average hits the ball, yet win an election with those odds and people act like the polling was off. 🤷‍♂️

        14 replies 85 retweets 1,051 likes
      3. Royal Panda‏ @RoyalPandaUK Sep 4
        Replying to @APJacksonic @JeffreyToobin

        This is a perfect analogy!

        2 replies 2 retweets 108 likes
      4. Robert Reiley‏ @robertfr69 Sep 4
        Replying to @RoyalPandaUK @APJacksonic @JeffreyToobin

        Why people find this so difficult, I don’t understand. I know people who hear that there is a 25% chance of rain, and carry an umbrella with them, but are totally shocked when the sane thing in elections.

        4 replies 3 retweets 81 likes
      5. Just 1 thing. VOTE!‏ @derekwthomas Sep 4
        Replying to @robertfr69 @RoyalPandaUK and

        Well, you have to admit about “the sane thing”...🤔🤓😜👍

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      6. Robert Reiley‏ @robertfr69 Sep 4
        Replying to @derekwthomas @RoyalPandaUK and

        Lol.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      7. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. HouseQuinn‏ @HouseQuinn Sep 4
        Replying to @JeffreyToobin

        pic.twitter.com/j4DmxngP2K

        4 replies 58 retweets 621 likes
      3. Frizz has flames... flames on the side of her face‏ @bringonthesong Sep 4
        Replying to @HouseQuinn

        pic.twitter.com/POUXspJWW9

        1 reply 4 retweets 93 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. David Auger  🤘🏻 🐑 (3/84)‏ @MetalDave01 Sep 4
        Replying to @JeffreyToobin

        Yeah, funny how an 80% chance isn't a 100% chance. Weird.

        3 replies 8 retweets 348 likes
      3. Bob Flynn‏ @trebornnylf Sep 4
        Replying to @MetalDave01 @JeffreyToobin

        60% of the time, it works 100% of the time!

        5 replies 0 retweets 74 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Randy Bryant‏ @Rab420 Sep 4
        Replying to @JeffreyToobin

        I was thinking the exact same thing! I lost a lot of confidence in 538.

        17 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
      3. edgar‏ @jedgar4400 Sep 4
        Replying to @Rab420 @JeffreyToobin

        Yes. Probability is too hard to understand. That's why I put all my faith in carnival fortune tellers.

        0 replies 4 retweets 159 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Dañiel Simpson‏ @DSimpson88 Sep 4
        Replying to @JeffreyToobin

        statistics is hard

        2 replies 0 retweets 164 likes
      3. asher roth fan‏ @willy_sg Sep 4
        Replying to @DSimpson88 @JeffreyToobin

        I'm embarrassed for him...

        0 replies 0 retweets 47 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Daniel Steinberg‏ @DanielSingerS Sep 4
        Replying to @JeffreyToobin

        People love to criticize Nate, in reality out of all the forecasters, he had Trump with the highest chance of winning by a mile. He does a great job, people really shouldn't throw shade at him.

        1 reply 1 retweet 56 likes
      3. hollygirl‏ @hollygirl2008 Sep 4
        Replying to @DanielSingerS @JeffreyToobin

        I absolutely agree; he cautioned about this all the way up to the election - I remember this distinctly because I got so angry at him at the time.

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
      4. Not A Well Behaved Woman‏ @busywriting Sep 4
        Replying to @hollygirl2008 @DanielSingerS @JeffreyToobin

        Me too.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      5. 1 more reply

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