30% and 20% probabilities are not remote possibilities. They are actually regular occurrences. No one calls it a miracle when a batter with a 250 average hits the ball, yet win an election with those odds and people act like the polling was off. 
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This is a perfect analogy!
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Why people find this so difficult, I don’t understand. I know people who hear that there is a 25% chance of rain, and carry an umbrella with them, but are totally shocked when the sane thing in elections.
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Well, you have to admit about “the sane thing”...




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Yeah, funny how an 80% chance isn't a 100% chance. Weird.
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60% of the time, it works 100% of the time!
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I was thinking the exact same thing! I lost a lot of confidence in 538.
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Yes. Probability is too hard to understand. That's why I put all my faith in carnival fortune tellers.
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statistics is hard
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I'm embarrassed for him...
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People love to criticize Nate, in reality out of all the forecasters, he had Trump with the highest chance of winning by a mile. He does a great job, people really shouldn't throw shade at him.
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I absolutely agree; he cautioned about this all the way up to the election - I remember this distinctly because I got so angry at him at the time.
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