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Jeffrey Ladish

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Applying the security mindset to everything

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    Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
    • Prijavi Tweet

    Alright @vgr, 1 like = 1 opinion on nuclear war

    17:40 - 14. pro 2019.
    • 22 proslijeđena tweeta
    • 171 oznaka „sviđa mi se”
    • ae7777 Dhananjay Nene ShervinD Grace VukTheWolfy Wazzup Ξ Fly Guy Ξ (flyguy.eth)🚀 Bananaplanet ntotao.eth
    8 replies 22 proslijeđena tweeta 171 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
      1. Novi razgovor
      2. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        1) Nuclear War is unlikely to cause human extinction. Working on a post about this now.

        5 proslijeđenih tweetova 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      3. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        2) The second scariest thing about nuclear war, after the massive initial destruction and death, is the uncertainty about what would happen the next few years after...

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      4. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        3) Fallout shelters work and they're still relevant. In a large scale nuclear war, hundreds of millions would die from fallout, but many of these lives could be saved with more fallout shelters. All it takes is a couple feet of soil and food and water for a week or two.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      5. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        4) Climate effects from nuclear war, "nuclear winter", are a real risk but the area is severely understudied. Climate science is hard to start with. It's even harder when the initial conditions are full of uncertainties. Experts disagree.

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      6. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        5) While there are only 9 nuclear powers, there are at least that many that don't have nuclear weapons but easily could. They build their own nuclear reactors, train nuclear engineers, and could build nuclear weapons within a few years if they decided to.

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      7. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        6) Dr. Strangelove is the best movie. It's not only artistically brilliant, it's also super educational for thinking about the history of the cold war and risks of nuclear war.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 23 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      8. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        7) Nuclear EMP weapons have the potential to disrupt society in significant ways. They're slightly easier to build than a standard ICBM--it takes getting a nuclear warhead to space, but does not require re-entry shielding required--something NK could do

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      9. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        8) While 7) is true, we don't know *how* significant a nuclear EMP attack would be. It would disrupt power and destroy a lot of electronics, but I have seen no careful estimates of damage to GDP--not even rough order of magnitude estimates.

        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      10. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        9) Nuclear war is more likely in the next 70 years than it was in the last 70 years. The nuclear taboo is stronger, but there are more actors, and more potential areas for conflict. There are more nuclear arms races happening simultaneously.

        1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 30 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      11. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        10) Radiological weapons are really nasty, but it would not be easy to construct a "Doomsday Device" that spread long-lived radiation around the world. Normal hydrogen bombs are deadly radiological weapons if used as ground bursts, but their fallout is short-lived.

        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      12. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        11) India and Pakistan, both with nuclear weapons... Not a good situation. They share a border and have a history of conflict. There is a long history of political instability and factionalism. Yikes.

        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      13. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        12) The US and Russia are going through serious (nuclear) relationship issues. The US left the INF treaty this year, and the most significant treaty, NewSTART, expires in 2021. This is in danger of not getting renewed, which would be the worst nuclear treaty lapse ever.

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      14. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        13) When it comes to ICBMs, missile defense is super difficult, and very unlikely to be effective against countries with serious nuclear programs. Because it's hard to test under realistic conditions, it's very hard to know exactly how ineffective they would be.

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      15. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        14) It's dangerous when nuclear weapons get faster or stealthier. Both increase the feasibility of a first strike that takes out much of an adversary's nuclear capability, and this weakens deterrence.

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      16. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        15) Although stealth capability that improve viability of a first strike is destabilizing, stealth that improves survivability of nukes to a first strike is stabilizing. It's very good for the world if nuclear submarines continue to be hard to detect and track.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      17. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        16) Nukes are OP

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      18. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        17) What happens in a nuclear war is NOT predetermined. Limited escalation might be possible, we don't know! Acting as if it's predetermined is dangerous because it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. As in, don't assume any nuclear war is MAD

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      19. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        18) Assuming a nuclear war can be "winnable" is also destabilizing. For most scenarios, a nuclear war would be strongly net negative for all participants.

        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      20. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        19) A precommitment to all-out nuclear retaliation to any use of nuclear weapons creates a stronger deterrent than a less severe precommitment, if believed. However, if it's not believed, it can weaken deterrence, and even if it is believed, it makes the nuclear war far worse.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      21. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        20) Nuclear non-proliferation efforts have been surprisingly successful! Most serious thinkers in the 1940s & 50s, such as Herman Kahn, thought there would be 20+ nuclear powers by now.

        1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      22. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        21) Thomas Schelling and Herman Kahn both made great contributions to our understanding of nuclear competition dynamics. They're often portrayed as disagreeing on most things, but they agreed on many non-obvious points.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      23. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        22) The Strategy of Conflict and On Thermonuclear War are both worth reading for those interested in nuclear deterrence theory & risks of nuclear war. On Thermonuclear War, though dated, is the most serious attempt I have seen to model what might happen in a real nuclear war.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 21 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      24. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        23) The Doomsday Machine and Command and Control are excellent reads. The former for understanding the insanity of early nuclear war plans and the bias towards nuclear readiness over safety, and the latter for mistakes in weapons risk management.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      25. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        24) The Making of the Atomic Bomb is excellent if you don't mind excessive detail. It's not just about the bomb--it also covers the fascinating history of physics as we learned WHAT THE UNIVERSE IS MADE OF

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      26. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        25) Human minds aren't equipped to think well about nuclear weapons or risk of nuclear war. People generally slide off the topic, because it's too overwhelming to think about, and it doesn't easily fit into our narratives about life or society.

        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 16 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      27. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        26) Global zero, as in complete nuclear disarmament, isn't a stable equilibrium so long as great powers are engaged in military rivalry. However, with sufficiently protected second strike weapons, states could agree to reduce their arsenals to small # of hundreds

        1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      28. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        27) Governments and militaries aren't competent enough to manage nuclear risk over the long term. Unless something fundamental changes in geopolitical relations, nuclear war is inevitable in the long term.

        1 reply 7 proslijeđenih tweetova 19 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      29. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        28) No state wants to start a nuclear war. The most likely way a war would occur is the result of runaway escalation. If a state believes an all-out nuclear conflict is inevitable, they have a strong incentive to strike first to destroy the other state's nuclear capability.

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      30. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        29) Civilization would recover after an all-out nuclear war. It may or may not happen quickly. There may be a civilizational collapse where whole technologies & supply chains are lost. Eventually they will be rebuilt.

        1 proslijeđeni tweet 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      31. Jeffrey Ladish‏ @JeffLadish 14. pro 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        30) We have very little idea what would happen if there was a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. It would be an unprecedented catastrophe, more casualties than WWII, but economic and social effects are very difficult to model, and I haven't seen any good attempts.

        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        Prikaži ovu nit
      32. Još 71 odgovor

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