Jay Donde

Part of the reason for this update is that I’m still seeing really bad takes bouncing around Twitter on this topic — analyses that don’t normalize to population, tourism flows, or nationwide trends. 2/x

My prior analysis sought to address those deficiencies, but it was still pretty rough. This update greatly expands on it, including rates per 100K residents, and per 100K residents + visitors (accounting for the tourism drop in 2020), plus data from the first months of 2021. 3/x

To my knowledge, this is the most comprehensive and accurate snapshot of crime trends in SF currently on the interwebs. Don’t settle for anything less. 4/x

All the same caveats about the data that I noted last time still apply. I’ll address those at the end of this thread, along with sources. This time around, let’s first look at the tables, then discuss each crime category in turn. 5/x

We start with larceny (i.e theft), which is at a totally bonkers level in San Francisco. DC is the only other city in the analysis that comes even close to our rate of larceny per 100K residents. Oakland, San Jose, and San Diego are at half as much or less. Why? 8/x

The answer is obvious. All SFers know it, and the criminals here certainly know it: Theft from vehicles and shoplifting have essentially been legalized by the city of San Francisco. A few links elaborating on this point follow: 9/x

Larceny in San Francisco was down in 2020, but as I noted in my prior thread, that was part of a national trend and likely driven by retail closures and the decline in tourism during the pandemic. 11/x

It’s true that larceny rates decreased more in San Francisco than elsewhere, but as I also noted in my prior thread, that was a reversion to the mean: SF’s larceny rate in 2019 was through the roof. 12/x

We had more than 1K more incidents per 100K residents than even DC, and between 200-300% more than other California cities! 13/x

The fact that, starting in late 2019, chain pharmacies like Walgreens and CVS started looking like Fort Knox, with even shampoo bottles behind lock and key, probably also had something to do with the decrease. 14/x

Now, with additional data in hand, our larceny rate decrease looks even less impressive. Once you account for the decline in tourism in 2020, the rate actually increased per 100K residents + visitors. 15/x

Yes, other cities’ rates also increased, and most increased more than SFs, but both Oakland and DC’s rates increased less, and the difference between us, Phoenix, Philadelphia, and San Jose is much less dramatic than it initially appeared. 16/x

The silver lining is that larceny is still decreasing when comparing the first five months of 2021 to the same in 2020. However, the rate of decrease is more or less in line with the national trend, which shouldn’t be the case given how high the rate was to begin with. 17/x

Next is motor vehicle theft. Our MVT rate is better than those of Oakland, San Jose, and Dallas, but worse than those of San Diego, NYC, Philadelphia, DC, Atlanta, and Phoenix. 18/x

Taking into account differences in driving habits between these cities, I would expect us to be doing much better. San Diego, Phoenix, and Atlanta are car-centric cities. We should have lower MVT rates than them and be more in line with NYC, Philadelphia, and DC. 19/x

It’s doubly disappointing then, that our MVT rate not only increased in 2020, but did so more than in 7 other cities (some decreased, even). The only 2 cities we did better than were NYC and DC, which both started with low rates. Our rate has continued to increase in 2021. 20/x

Yet more bad news: Our burglary rate is also sky high, and is only getting worse. In 2019, we had more burglaries per 100K residents than 6 other cities. And not just trivially more: Our burglary rate was between 50-300% higher than in those cities. 21/x

Then, in 2020, burglary in SF really took off, with a higher rate than in 8 other cities (around 200-400% higher), increasing by 52% YoY. Burglary rates decreased in every other city, except NYC and Philadelphia, where they increased less than in SF. 22/x

Burglaries in San Francisco continued to increase in 2021, and continued to decrease in 7 of the other cities examined. 23/x

Robbery tells a very similar story to burglary. SF’s robbery rate in 2019 was 50-100% higher than in 7 other cities, and though our rate decreased more than in 8 cities in 2020, we continue to have a higher rate than 6 other cities, so there’s some reversion to the mean. 25/x

What’s more, robbery is kind of like larceny with a force element, so the two crimes are both sensitive to declines in tourism and retail closures. When you account for those factors,, robberies in San Francisco not only increased in 2020, but more than in 5 other cities. 26/x

Assaults: some good news, some bad news. We’re in the middle of the pack, and while assaults in every other city went up, they declined by 15% in SF in 2020. We continue to do well in 2021, but aren’t really an outlier anymore. 27/x

Also, when you factor in the decline in tourism, our assault rate increased (by less than in other cities, but not dramatically). 28/x

We’re also in the middle of the pack on incidents of rape, but the good news is that this rate decreased a lot in 2020, much more so than in other cities. The first 5 months of 2021 have seen a slight uptick, but 3 other cities are also up (including Atlanta, which spiked). 29/x

The homicide rate is the sole bright spot, in my opinion. San Francisco’s murder rate is very low — comparable to those of San Jose, San Diego, and NYC — and though it went up in 2020, it did so less than in 8 other cities. 30/x

SF homicide data for May isn’t available yet, but it looks like we’re leveling off while other cities continue to see increases. 31/x