11/ I said it 7 months ago and I'll say it again:
We're building an open, permissionless world.
This will take decades, not years.
If you're feeling dejected, close the computer, zoom out, go for a walk.
Just don't give up ๐
For crypto professionals, the 2nd year of the bear market tends to be the most painful one. Itโs the year of apathy. There seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel.
But simply being aware of this gives you a massive edge.
Year 3 things will get much better.
9/ If you're feeling dejected right now, that's okay!
I'm on dozens of calls every week. Trust me, everyone is feeling it right now.
You just need to find a way to survive, build value, and power through.
Things will get worse before they get better but we're in this together.
8/ And if you don't believe me, think in terms of regret minimization.
How will you feel when the next bull market comes and you've gone back to your TradFi or SaaS job.
Many talented people left during the last bear market.
Those who stayed were rewarded.
7/ I'm here to remind you that this is worth it.
Anyone who has been through it before will tell you... it's so incredibly worth it.
I can assure you, there's no better feeling than seeing everything you built in a bear market pay dividends in the bull.
6/ In bull markets you can be productive on a Tuesday and see the outcome of your efforts by Wednesday.
In bear markets you won't see the outcome of your efforts for another 12+ months.
It's fking draining!
But bear markets don't test talent โ they test perseverance.
5/ This is the toughest part of the bear market.
This will be the year you work long days and ship great products only to see your key metrics go down day after day.
Your friends will leave. Your coworkers will leave.
You'll question every assumption you had about crypto.
4/ We're now out of Stage 2 and into Stage 3.
Welcome to Bottomless Exhaustion
There will be no narratives. Prices will consolidate sideways. It'll be boring.
Where we're at now, anger has been replaced by silence.
From max pain to max exhaustion, your enemy is now apathy.
3/ Stage 2 was Forced Capitulation
This is where it got ugly.
Narratives died. Prices fell 90%... then another 90%. Layoffs across the board. Mainstream media rose up, laughed, and shouted "I told you!"
In Stage 2, prices crashed violently.
Excitement was replaced by anger.
2/ As a reminder, Stage 1 was The Unwind
The excitement (+ greed) from the bull still existed.
Narratives popped up. Valuations got cut but companies didn't kill products or do layoffs.
Stage 1 didn't feel like a bear... it felt like we pulled back to "realistic" valuations.
Cometeer raised more than $100 million for its flash-frozen coffee pods, popular with VCs and the tech twitter set.
But after multiple rounds of layoffs, high executive turnover and a quiet CEO switch, Cometeer's vision of disrupting coffee is melting.
https://forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/01/30/cometeer-coffee-pods-layoffs-ceo-switch/โฆ
If you could only ever listen to one of my podcasts this would probably be the one I recommend. Recorded last week, released today, this sums up most of my core views quite well.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=o-1hTzn0NSgโฆ
just dropped:
- How to trade inflection points
- What caused this rally?
- How Shanghai will impact ETH sell pressure
- How he's trading LSDs
- Learnings from the Aptos pump
- Will value accrue to L2s?
- dYdX thesis
Listen โ http://apple.co/3srZf7M
SCOOP: Amazon is coming to Web3, according to multiple sources.
How long could they stay on the sidelines, as millions of consumers see the value of NFTs?
Exclusive from @michael_bodleyhttps://blockworks.co/news/amazon-nft-marketplace-web3โฆ
Macro people are all-time bearish right now.
But we have the presidential cycle, subsiding inflation, and the Chinese economy reopening.
Feels bullish to me.
The Fat Wallet thesis is here
2017: Exchange wars
2021: L1 wars
2023: Wallet wars
Learn more on the latest episode of @theempirepod with @QwQiao and @santiagoroel