*2008 and 2012 elections with Obama.
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The 2020 US Presidential election far exceeded 2 standard deviations of historical voter turnout over the past ~100 years. A statistically improbable outcome. For comparison, both the 2012 and 2016 elections with Obama were well within a single standard deviation.pic.twitter.com/mcivSZ4qYW
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If it’s not improbable the media won’t report it
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Spot on!
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this graph looks exactly like enthusiasm graphs from other contexts and seems entirely plausible and if so my prediction is turnout will drop for the next election or the one after, possibly precipitously
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Plausible as in about a 1% chance of happening, yes.
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Trump is an extraordinarily provocative President who invokes intense support and intense pposition, plus the pandemic leaves everyone hyper focused on the election. I don't find high turnout surprising.
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Business & politics are different. In business the aim is to win contracts and beat off the opposition. In politics it’s about gaining consensus with people who are never going to agree with you. Trump’s business approach was never going to work. However he gave it his best shot.
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OMG the climate brigade have plotted the voter graph too :)
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Not improbable with such a polarising president
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