Tonight, I'll be covering a conversation at NYU Wagner between Assemblymember Michael Blake and Cornell Belcher, President of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies and Political Contributor at NBC/MSNBC.
Conversation
Replying to
After a 15 minute delay, the two arrive - Assemblymember Blake points to a prior union endorsement meeting for his congressional campaign as the cause.
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The topic is voting trends in 2020. "Democrats haven't won the majority of white voters in decades," Belcher says, pointing to Lyndon B. Johnson and the Civil Rights Act as the start of this trend.
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Obama's win in 2008 was initially hailed as a sign of a post-racial America, according to Belcher. An 11% change in the electorate, though, was what made the difference - more of a diverse pool of voters.
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Belcher points to "protest votes" as a primary reason for Democrat loss in 2016 - "The Russians impacted this election. They did impact and erode the Obama coalition, and they used our tribalism against us."
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Good news, though: in Illinois suburban focus groups, signs showed of concerns over division among Americans over race. Plus, a voting surge among younger generations, rural voters, evangelicals and black Democratic voters.
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"Early primary polling is meaningless. It's gonna change," Belcher says in his closing remarks - millions of dollars can be spent to make sure these numbers change. "History is littered with the bodies of Democratic frontrunners."
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Blake takes over from here, emphasizing the importance of the Iowa caucus for Democratic candidates. "When you're looking at polling and you're looking at enthusiasm, you should always look at someone's second choice for that candidate."
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Question about predicting voting pattern by looking at specific places - suburbs in traditionally Republican cities like Charleston behave differently as a voting base than they used to, so difficult to use one place as a microcosm of what the future might look like.
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And soon after this question, the event comes to an end. #newmarkjreports