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Jake Carstens
@JakeCarstens
Meteorologist and postdoc at , with a focus on hurricanes. 3-time alum, born and raised in Chicagoland.
State College, PAcarstensweather.comJoined November 2012

Jake Carstens’s Tweets

Leaving #AMS2023 with optimism, in large part from interacting with students. I was blown away by the quality/diversity of the work you're doing, and your passion to advance our field for the greater good. Eager for my shot (hopefully soon!) to invest in y'all as a professor.
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For those of you interested in using ECAPE, a link to a preprint of the paper we submitted is available here: arxiv.org/abs/2301.04712 And a matlab script that computes this quantity is available here: doi.org/10.6084/m9.fig
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Entrainment CAPE (ECAPE) is the next big thing in severe wx forecasting, imho. Brilliant work in progress by @UpdraftwMax to take a simple sounding and estimate updraft velocity with incredible accuracy. Big deal for tornado, hail potential etc.
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Presentation: #AMS2023 has been incredibly fulfilling. Old friends, new faces, compelling work, breaking through years of social anxiety... so happy to finally be "Early Career" in this crazy field of ours. 😌
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Presentation day at #AMS2023! Excited to share the first few months of my postdoc work, looking at tropical cyclone asymmetries in reanalyses and climate models. 4PM MST, Room 503. If hurricanes interest you, drop in and tell a friend! 🌀
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Off to Denver tomorrow for #AMS2023! Excited to reconnect with old friends and meet plenty of new faces throughout the week. If you're planning a schedule and have an interest in hurricanes, check out my talk at 4PM Tuesday! ⬇️
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We are happy to announce our Student / Alumni Mixer that will be taking place at the AMS Annual Conference in Denver this upcoming week! It will be a wonderful and relaxed opportunity to chat with past and present AMS members. We hope to see you guys there!
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It's 00 UTC on December 25 as I tweet this, so let the sounding data pour in... 🎄 Shoutout to the #WxTwitter folks and everyone else working the holidays to keep people safe, especially these past few eventful days.
A skew-T log-P diagram is commonly used in meteorology, showing how temperature and dewpoint change with height as a weather balloon rises through the atmosphere. Here, I have made my own diagram with imaginary temperature (right, red) and dewpoint (left, green) data that forms the shape of a Christmas tree.
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I was a Florida Man™️ for the last 12 years, so I've been looking forward to the changing seasons up north. This morning, I saw more snow than I have across those 12 years, and it was every bit as fun as I remembered. 😌 📍 Snowshoe Mountain, West Virginia #WVwx
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When we planned this trip to West Virginia, I admittedly didn't think of "remnant hurricane rain" as a weather hazard 🤷🏻‍♂️ Left: the view advertised on Airbnb Right: the current view ahead of #Nicole
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For every fun animation I share here, there's 50 hilariously broken plots. New programmers: rarely does something work on the first try! - The plan: Look at inward, outward, and vertical motion in a particular section of hurricanes. - The result: Climate stripes, apparently.
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Applying for a faculty job for the first time! 😬 I LOVE teaching, which is largely why my presence here has shifted toward explaining hurricanes, interpreting meteorological plots, etc. This has been my career goal since freshman year, so it's exciting to have it in reach.
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June-August: 3 named storms, 0 hurricanes, ~3 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) units. September: 6 named storms, 4 hurricanes including Cat. 4 Fiona/Ian, ~76 ACE units. After a notably quiet 1st half, the switch flipped on the Atlantic #HurricaneSeason over the past month.
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#Ian is the 6th storm since 2017 to make landfall in the continental United States as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. That's the most in any 6-year period on record, and as many as there were in the 55 years before 2017. In short: These past few years have been relentless. 😔
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Switching my #Ian wobble tracker to the Tampa radar - Approximate center is marked each hour from 12AM-1PM EDT. Ian has taken a right turn recently, which has taken the eyewall into Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, and Sanibel. Landfall appears imminent.
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My goodness. In the last inbound pass thru the SW eyewall, plane was jolted in what was a ~700 ft immediate change in altitude. Then they circle in the eye, probably to catch their breath. Behaving *exactly* like my Michael landfall mission (2018). Intensification likely ongoing.
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(2/3) We got our clocks cleaned! On this our last fix, we entered from the S, and (eventually) exited SE. The white flashing in the eyewall is the severe turbulence we just flew thru. The chart tells the story. The wild gyrations in pitch & roll (over 30 deg bank!) were…NOT FUN.
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