The idea that NYS is shrinking because of taxes or jobs is wrong. Rents and home prices are high & rising – that indicates that it’s not a demand-side issue. It’s shrinking because we’re not building enough housing to keep up with falling household sizes!!https://nypost.com/2018/12/22/the-real-reason-why-new-yorks-population-is-shrinking/ …
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And yet housing prices in places where those latter people live just keep on going up and up. So either prices are unhinged from demand, or those people actually really wanna live in NYC. Anyway, measuring absolute numbers of out movers is bad – you should measure the net changes
This doesn’t seem like an either/or situation. More likely it’s about value. People with six figure incomes are deciding that their money goes farther elsewhere, both in take home pay and purchasing power. Plus, not everyone wants to live in a big city