I put this in a trollish way that misrepresents my own considered view, but it's fascinating to consider why it *feels* so dangerous to clearly state that, given what we know now, Trump is likely to lose to generic D challenger in 2020. People are scared that saying it jinxes it.https://twitter.com/willwilkinson/status/1095178955609591808 …
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Well, I think he's likely to get crushed. But people read me as saying that there's no chance he wins, which is not something I'd ever say. I think he had a 33% chance in 2016 and a 25% chance now, and he's president now and could be again, but it's *more* likely he's crushed.
In the current equilibrium, ~40% of the electorate would vote for a ham sandwich if it had D or R behind its name, so that keeps the odds closer than many want to admit
