Are there prediction markets on anticipated global warming consequences? sea-level rise, storm strength and frequency, ice melt, temperature, glacial collapse, coral bleaching, etc (wld the danger of incentivizing sabotage of policy to address be too great to tolerate such mkts?)
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that's a question! a lot of ppl on the political right claim it's corrupt grantseeking or liberal groupthink that yields the alarming predictions of scientists. are they willing to bet their money on this grift-or-maybe-fashion hypothesis? or wld they actually bet on the science?
No doubt that some sat this, but more often I hear people claim that the IPCC summaries and the resulting reporting are more alarmist than the actual reports. So you would likely find lots of takers for a prediction market. Could be a good way to bring more models to the task
