4/Gilens and Page ALSO find that the policy preferences of the households making >$146k are HIGHLY correlated with the preferences of the households making median income. In other words, the upper-middle-class and slightly-wealthy want mostly the same things as the middle class.
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5/Also, Gilens and Page don't isolate causation from correlation. It could be that policy is slightly more correlated with the preferences of the upper-middle-class because politicians themselves happen to come from that class, not because of any influence of money on politics.
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6/BUT, all this being said, it's also possible that Gilens and Page's findings are just flat-out wrong. I summon
@dylanmatt of Vox to give some contrary evidence! Prepare to be Voxsplained!https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11502464/gilens-page-oligarchy-study …5 replies 4 retweets 42 likesShow this thread -
7/Enns (2015): "Even on those issues for which the preferences of the wealthy and those in the middle diverge, policy ends up about where we would expect if policymakers represented the middle class and ignored the affluent."https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/relative-policy-support-and-coincidental-representation/BBBD524FFD16C482DCC1E86AD8A58C5B …
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8/Bashir (2015): "The original study is based is prone to underestimating the impact of citizens at the 50th income percentile by a wide margin...average Americans have received their preferred policy outcome roughly as often as elites"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2053168015608896 …
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9/Elkjaer and Iversen (2018): "government policies largely reflect the economic preferences of the middle class...middle-class power has remained remarkably stable over time...The rich have no or little influence on redistributive policies" http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~iversen/PDFfiles/Elkjaer&Iversen2018.pdf …
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10/Branham et al. (2017): "We find that the rich and middle almost always agree and, when they disagree, the rich win only slightly more often. Even when the rich do win, resulting policies do not lean point systematically in a conservative direction." https://jabranham.com/papers/when-do-the-rich-win.pdf …
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11/Another caveat: There's evidence that the GOP represents the rich more, while the Dems represent the poor and middle class. As you'd expect:https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/2/16226202/oligarchy-political-science-politician-congress-respond-citizens-public-opinion …
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12/Is it bad that we have one political party that basically ignores the poor and middle class in America? Hell yes, it's bad. But it's different than living in an oligarchy.
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13/And everyone who is quoting the Gilens & Page study to say that we live in an oligarchy is being irresponsible. Headlines like these are irresponsible and wrong and bad.pic.twitter.com/Sedr1cOLZp
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Those headlines say a lot about who those outlets think believe their audiences to be
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