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Prikvačeni tweet
1/ The model for projecting when quantum computers will break
#Bitcoin
's 256-bit ECDSA is complete. You can find the code at https://github.com/theqrl-community/QCcalc …. I have attached some results for assorted parameter settings. You will need Matlab to run it for now, but a web app is coming!pic.twitter.com/Mpa7e4njqZ
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Idk guys I think maybe we can pull it off!!
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The great
@BullshitQuantum once decreed the "non-BS" timeline for quantum comps becoming a security threat to be 50-100yrs. Well, I checked and... For lattice surgery, that means we'll need ~5% more qubits ~1% lower gate error ~3% better algorithm /year! https://twitter.com/BullshitQuantum/status/1156028495849410561 …pic.twitter.com/W4Vzse1RXx
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John Smith proslijedio/la je TweetHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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The legend
@PeterShor1 just hit 1,000 followers on Twitter after joining 2 months ago. I predict a quadratic speedup on his way to 2,000Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
9/ That's all for now. Happy to answer any methodological questions.
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8/ Some notes on the parameters: 100% increase per year = doubling 50% decrease per year = halving. algorithmic improvement is a discounting term, so think of 50% as halving the cost of the calculation per year. Uncertainty represents 1 Gaussian standard deviation
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7/ Reply to this tweet with the values of: >% increase in # qubits per year (>= 0) >% decrease in physical gate error per year (>= 0, < 100) >% algorithmic improvement per year (>= 0, < 100) >% uncertainty about the above estimates (>= 0) & I will reply with the model's results
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6/ Finally, since the web app is not up yet, and many of you likely do not have Matlab, if you reply to the next tweet with a requested combination of parameters, I will run the model for you and attach the resulting graphs, when I have time, for ~1wk after posting.
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5/ One interesting takeaway from this exercise for me was that QCs actually do not need to double in power every year per se to threaten ECDSA in as early as 10-20 years from now.
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4/ This modeling tool is still quite useful for those interested in cryptocurrency, for obvious reasons...
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3/ I decided NOT to include any additional Bitcoin risk-assessment component to this. The details of Bitcoin's migration to QR sigs remain unclear, & modeling it at this stage would be highly imprecise. I also thought it would be better to just have one main purpose per script.
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2/ This model takes your guesses for how QCs will scale (# of qubits, gate error, algorithmic improvements, & uncertainty), & applies them to the surface-code approach by Gidney & Ekera (2019) to generate a probability distribution for when ECDSA will be broken
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John Smith proslijedio/la je Tweet
I agree with everything in this! Would also suggest the article title is analogous to "Someone proved P=NP. It won't change the world". Q supremacy will be a massive scientific achievement, which changes the world in itself, even w/out practical applications (that may come later)https://twitter.com/earltcampbell/status/1157718034238386177 …
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14/ Anyways, this model can be updated as time goes by, to generate predictions with tighter confidence intervals. And the second part is coming soon. That's all for now! [end]
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13/ One interesting thing I've noticed from this exercise so far, though, is that it's not that easy to see threatening QCs coming from more than a couple of years out if all you do is set a size threshold. The risk tends to go, metaphorically, from "0 to 100 real quick”...
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12/ Not sure what I'll find once I model Bitcoin’s adaptation process. Maybe the most realistic parameters I can come up with will actually give a 0% chance of things going south. We’ll see. You can audit for yourself (& plug in your own assumptions) once the code is up.
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