All precincts where Beasley outperformed every other (non-row office) Dem since 2014
They total to 66% White, and also 66% Beasley
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J. Miles Coleman
@JMilesColeman
Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' grad. Author, America Votes Vol. 35. He/him
J. Miles Coleman’s Tweets
I have a Kennedy for President 1960 bumper sticker on the back of my car and an LSU alumni sticker on the other side.
At UVA the other day, someone left a note on my windshield, "You must be a big fan of Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy!"
Not exactly the takeaway I was going for.
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Benjamin Butler, brash and unapologetic, a sui generis personality in Massachusetts politics, finally won the governorship on his fourth try in 1882, marking only the second Democratic victory in 30 years. Here's the map of his win and some background on that year's campaign:
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Another township map, this time, in 1924, Republican maverick Smith Brookhart narrowly won re-election against Henry Steck by 755 votes (0.08%). Despite this, Steck successfuly contested the election and Brookhart became the only Senator in history to be seated and then removed.
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What a strong over performer! I highly doubt he will ever become an unpopular governor!
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I think it’s under appreciated how impressive this margin was
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Reminds me of a similar tale in Missouri
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NEW: A story about Jim Clyburn, one of the most powerful Dems in the country
-He secretly worked with the S.C. GOP on redistricting
-He protected himself
-The cost? Making a swing district safer for the GOP
From @marilynt2004:
propublica.org/article/how-re
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Labour overtake Conservatives to become largest party in local government, the first time since 2002 - Sky News
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showed up and headed over to City Annex to cast his ballot, he’s reminding people to vote early
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It’s #MayThe4thBeWithYou and we’re also just a few days away from Chicago getting a new Mayor. So what better way to celebrate than an on brand map!
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Day 124 #theMCIMAPSarchives
Andrew Gillum has been found not guilty for lying to the FBI related to a public corruption scandal that has brought down several TLH politicians
Gillum's 2018 #FLGOV primary win burst him onto the national scene, but then he lost to DeSantis #flapol
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This is one of my favorite inside jokes.
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Er, the Republican nominee for governor carried it by 16 points in 2014 despite being heavily outspent. That feels red to me. twitter.com/maxtmcc/status…
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Despite Republican gerrymandering, Democrats were able to win control of the State Board of Education in Ohio last November. While many of the races were uncontested, Democrats were able to win all but one contested race.
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Er, the Republican nominee for governor carried it by 16 points in 2014 despite being heavily outspent. That feels red to me.
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As expected, MD-06 Rep. David Trone is running for Senate, making for a potentially crowded field to replace him in his Biden +10 district. Republicans made a play for it last year but came up well short; the onus is on them to prove they’re still competitive here twitter.com/maxtmcc/status…
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Endorsement #2 by the Louisiana Republican Party. This time in the Treasurers race (Jeff Landry for Governor was their first endorsement)
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According to a party spokesperson, the
@LAGOP has endorsed another Trump-aligned candidate for statewide office: former Congressman John Fleming for state treasurer. The party has also endorsed @JeffLandry for governor. #lalege #lagov
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Prior to losing the OH-11 primary narrowly in 2021, Nina Turner suffered a far greater electoral setback in the Republican wave of 2014. Her opponent was incumbent Ohio SOS, Jon Husted, who absolutely trounced her, winning every county except Cuyahoga and Athens.
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“Even in the midst of legal woes, Trump continues to garner increasing support for his presidential bid in the GOP Primary. With his name swirling throughout the press, it seems that, for Trump, no publicity is bad publicity.” -
Full release: hubs.ly/Q01NJTGK0
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Governor Glenn Youngkin recently said he is not running for president this year, but he didn't answer when reporters asked about a 2024 bid.
So, what could come next for Virginia's governor?
We break it all down tonight on
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Crystal Ball: on how the states of the Midwest and Interior West have voted for president since 2000 relative to the nation centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar
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How have #voting patterns in the Midwest & Interior West trended relative to the national popular vote in presidential #elections since 2000? Hint: we're seeing a lot of red. examines trends in new analysis for 's Crystal Ball. Read it here:…~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
GIF
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Excellent analysis of voting trends in Midwest and Interior West from for and Dogfight for Biden in several states (he carried 6 by less than national margin and watch WI and NV) but R states likely to stay R.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar
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With the upcoming redistricting and Rep. Tricia Cotham's party switch, I looked at the House map that was struck down. Her new district will probably resemble this, which went from Romney +20 to Biden/Beasley +0.9%. There remains little red turf left in Eastern Meck these days.
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Harry Truman easily won New York City in his upset reelection in 1948, doing best in Harlem and the South Bronx, then majority-Jewish. Dewey did best in suburban areas like Queens and Staten Island, as well as wealthy areas in Manhattan like the Upper East Side and Midtown.
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Delaware Governor John Carney is term limited but no Democrat has even announced a campaign for the office yet. Everyone is waiting for Tom Carper to announce whether he's running for reelection before they make a decision.
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Good evening. In 2022, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody was re-elected by a margin of 21 points. Although she won the election, she carried Miami-Dade County by only 9 points, which was slightly worse than other statewide Republicans...
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The 1968 Election saw Ohio narrowly vote for Richard Nixon by two points. A notable performance by George Wallace caused a lot of areas to be competitive. Humphrey did best in big cities and industrial towns while Nixon swept medium-sized cities and suburbs.
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Yesterday Indianapolis mayor Joe Hogsett had a somewhat-close primary, in which he defeated State Rep. Robin Shackleford.
Hogsett had some weaknesses near Shackleford's house district, but generally speaking, he had support in all other areas of the city.
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Day 122 #theMCIMAPSarchives
In 2020's elections, Liberty County FL, which never elected a Republican to local office before, saw the GOP sweep down-ballot races
But the DEM Property Appraiser only had a NPA opponent, and easily won
The switched parties the next year
#flapol
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In 2018, former presidential candidate Mitt Romney beat Salt Lake City Councilwoman Jenny Wilson by nearly 32 points for the open Senate seat left by 7-term incumbent Orrin Hatch.
Romney will likely face a tough primary, with low approvals in his own party. 2024 - Safe R
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Here’s the election that started it all. The New Deal caused a seismic political shift in the Mahoning Valley. Despite voting for Herbert Hoover four years earlier, Mahoning County shifted to become FDR’s best county in the state in 1936.
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Uploaded my maps about fusion votes in 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2016 to my website so it's easier to access them in full size! Finally getting around to putting my back catalogue on there. subspaceteati.me/Fusion-Electio
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I would like to say a big thank you to the people who voted in today’s primary, and I was so blown away by the positive response across the board! I am so honored to be our Democratic nominee. On to November!
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#ElectionTwitter Here is a dot map by state of the 2004 election, the last one the Republicans won a majority of the popular vote in. Bush accomplished this by netting a substantial amount of votes from states like TX and GA while keeping his losses narrow in CA and IL.
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Positive negative ratings first (positive - negative - no opinion - never heard)
Peltola 53-28-13-6 (+25)
Sullivan 45-42-12-1 (+3)
A very healthy edge in likeability, but does it transfer to the vote in a red state like Alaska?
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Scholten is one of only three white evangelical Democrats in Congress. The others being Steny Hoyer and Jon Tester. Though if we consider Quakers to be evangelical than that number is four due to Hickenlooper.
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New: I talked to first-term Michigan Democrat @RepScholten about how she wants Democrats to reclaim faith, freedom and "compassionate conservatism" going into 2024
“Our biggest mistake has been completely giving up that lane of faith,” she said. 19thnews.org/2023/05/hillar
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