(First, a caveat: I'm relying on the public text of the US-#Taliban agreement. We know there are several "secret annexes" to it, which I have not seen. However, based on various officials' statements about them, I'm doubtful they'd change much here.) 2/n https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf …
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First, on "cutting ties to
#alQaeda." This is a popular phrase/sentiment but also a popular misconception. The US-#Taliban agreement DOES NOT require the TB to "cut ties" with any group. It DOES require the following: - No use of#Afghanistan soil to threaten the US/allies 3/nShow this thread -
- Instruct
#Taliban members not to cooperate w/groups threatening the US/allies - Prevent such groups from recruiting, training, & fundraising in#Afghanistan - No hosting of such groups - No asylum or immigration of such groups' members (incl issuing of govt-like docs) 4/nShow this thread -
Now, one might read that list & think it pretty much adds up to cutting ties...but the deal doesn't say "cut ties" & the
#Taliban have proven to be very strict in their interpretation of the deal to date. There's a lot of ambiguity in this list as well. 5/nShow this thread -
IMO, the most notable clause that the
#Taliban have arguably violated is the "no hosting" aspect, since there have been numerous examples of#alQaeda leaders killed at TB safe houses/controlled areas since the agreement was signed (e.g., see link). 6/nhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/key-al-qaeda-leader-killed-in-afghanistan-11603626009 …Show this thread -
The counterargument that I've seen/heard from
#Taliban defenders is that the group sees it commitments in Part 2 of the US-TB agreement as "conditions-based" subject to the same timeline as the US drawdown of forces. 7/nShow this thread -
In other words, that they don't have to be in full compliance w/those commitments until 1 May 2021. However, the deal doesn't say this. Rather, it says the
#Taliban will take these steps "in conjunction with the announcement of this agreement." 8/n https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf …Show this thread -
Second, on ceasefires. The public text only mentions a ceasefire once, as Part 3 of a comprehensive peace agreement. It says a ceasefire will be an agenda item of negotiations--incl date, modalities & mechanisms--but announcement would happen alongside a political roadmap. 9/n
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It says nothing about where in the agenda item list a ceasefire would/should fall. It also says nothing about "reductions in violence." My understanding from some who were close to the talks is that the US conveyed an *expectation* of a RiV, but didn't get that in writing. 10/n
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Third, on engaging in "real talks." The deal is silent on this. All it says is that the
#Taliban & Afghan govt would begin talks on 10 MAR 2020. Obviously that was delayed by 6 months, but it did eventually happen. 11/nShow this thread -
The deal, however, says nothing about the pace of progress for the intra-Afghan negotiations. The only two items it specifies for discussion are a ceasefire & a political roadmap. 12/n
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One could argue, I suppose, that if the
#Taliban are not bringing proposals to the table on these two items, then they're not engaging in good-faith efforts at talks. The same criticism could presumably be levied at the Afghan govt, though. 13/nShow this thread -
The other two parts of
@jakejsullivan's remarks are more in line with a US/Afghan govt view that the#Taliban haven't engaged in "good faith" behaviors regarding the talks/haven't met US *expectations* that were stated verbally to the TB by@US4AfghanPeace. 15/nShow this thread -
Regardless, one thing is sure: we're not going to see much/any progress in the intra-Afghan negotiations until the US' review is complete & all sides know what US intentions are for
#Afghanistan going forward. 17/17Show this thread
End of conversation
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