The IFR must be paired with some estimate of how contagious a disease is to get what matters most, how many will die. Ebola has a high IFR but is much less contagious and so will never kill like covid. 2/n
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In March 2020, JPAI assumed that 1% of USA would get covid and only 10,000 would die. I wish he had been right! Clearly he’s off by many orders of magnitude. 3/npic.twitter.com/CaA80EtH1h
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Yet in this video, from just one month later, he claims covid is 50-85 times more common than thought- and so not that deadly. Start listening at 2 minutes. 4/n.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s …
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Note the pivot. In March covid wasn’t scary because few would get it. In April covid wasn’t that scary because so many had already gotten it. That’s a cute trick. 5/n
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As it became clear that tens of thousands would die, he pivoted again to say that the Covid numbers were inflated. That people were dying with Covid, not of Covid. I have found 3 instances of this. Two are below. 6/npic.twitter.com/CZL3bEYKxa
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The 3rd is this video again. Start listening at 24 minutes. He says that many covid deaths were in older people who would have imminently die anyway. He specifically says docs fill out death certificates poorly. 7/n.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s …
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So in summary, few will get covid, everyone already has covid, the death numbers are inflated anyways. 8/n
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Here are the sources for the screenshots above so you can ensure nothing is taken out of context. 9/n https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/933977 … https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7447267/ …
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He later said his prediction of 10,00 deaths was just his optimistic range. However that appears nowhere in his original writing. 10/npic.twitter.com/asiGNzDY7U
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And while he does talk about the pessimistic range in his piece from March 2020, he clearly said “I do not espouse” that view. 11/npic.twitter.com/kjX5lZr7Ip
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So my last thought is that with JPAI, it’s not the crime, is the cover-up. We need space for people to make bold predictions, be wrong, and not be vilified. However, this relies on people acknowledging the error in honest and transparent ways. 12/n
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It seems obligatory in posts like these to add that I admired him (and many of his defenders) a lot one year ago. They were my “tribe.” I badly wanted them to be right. My bias was heavily skewed in their favor. But I try to let reality win over my biases when possible. End.
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