I think you are probably putting too little weighting on:
- automation
- voluntary euthanasia
- government incentives to increase the birth rate.
China has 1.4bn people and has relaxed the birth rate and there is talk about it starting to promote births. Geometric growth.
Conversation
But the point is, it's a possible scenario in a 100 years time and it will be well signalled before it becomes entrenched. There are far more pressing issues that are real, not 'possible' we need to focus on now.
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I agree there are lots of issues. You might be putting too much faith in automation. This isn't a 100 yr problem. Without healthy aging there will be more old people than young very soon. Less than 50 yrs away
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I'm not putting too much faith in automation alone - it's also not something that is going to happen overnight - the minute population numbers show meaningful falls governments will step in with financial incentives to promote births. Has happened in the past, will again.
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I dont think fin incentives will solve the problem when most the data suggests abundance. Increase in wealth, education, and intelligence etc promote the decline.I think we need to really invest in healthy life extension. Most decisions we make are based on when we think we die.
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Totally disagree that financial incentives won't be effective. Also: China has a massive geopolitical incentive to increase the birth rate, as do religions like Islam. I think Musk (and perhaps you) might be focusing on the wrong issue when there are far bigger fish to fry.
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I never said it was a PRIMARY focus. But it should be discussed. Its not as small of an issue 100s of years out for sure. So what are your top issues?
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There are countless things that need possible consideration.
Primary issues for me - vast global inequality/tax avoidance / global overconsumption / habitat destruction in most of the world, China / Russian expansion & misinformation / + obvs AGW/climate change.
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Those are all important
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And more pressing imo. Population decline is a possibility but something that will occur slowly, be obvious if it's happening and can be counteracted by gov't policies + could be good for planet. Some of the things in my list means that we may never even have to worry about it.
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I think aging is a big problem. We are going to have a huge aging population. More money needs to go to research on solving that. All our decisions are made based on when we expect to die
We're all living too long. More focus needs to go into quality of life and not quantity of life.
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Right health span is what I mean. I follow and . They are leaders in this space. I think this is very important