Step 3 is crucial. ‘His conclusion’ sounds like ‘his guess’ to me. My own guess is that people minded to drive dangerously will do so regardless, people lile me who drive safely will do so regardless, and that the effect at the margins will be negligible.
It wasn't a guess, it was rather informed. Here's the link to the original paper. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1830396.pdf …
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Will read. This suggests otherwise, but need to read both to judge fairly. http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/olin_center/papers/pdf/341.pdf …
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