Suppose I have a box of jewels. The average value of a jewel in the box is $10. I randomly pull one out of the box. What’s the probability that its value is at least $100? You can't tell me the exact probability... but you can tell me something about it. (continued)pic.twitter.com/v65zodLNDy
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In real life unusually severe events are more likely than naive guesses might suggest. Lots of probability distributions are "long-tailed". So there may be no well-defined mean value for the size of a disaster... and results like Markov's inequality may not apply!
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Replying to @johncarlosbaez
Well that’s comforting
12:40 AM - 11 Aug 2018
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