IndexInvestorLLC

@IndexLlc

Since 1997, Index Investor has provided macro analysis (tech, econ, natsec, soc, pol, & fin); asset allocation insights, and early warning of downside threats

Denver, Colorado, USA
Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2018.

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  1. prije 13 sati

    RE: in Fixed Income products that promise daily liquidity but invest in assets with relatively thin underlying markets. Maturity transformation is a dangerous game, that works well-until it doesn't. Is everyone counting on a Fed backstop?

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  2. prije 17 sati

    Until the uncertainty surrounding asymptomatic transmission of is resolved with more evidence, expect travel bans and other isolation measures to continue, as a prudent policy reaction at this stage.

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  3. prije 17 sati

    With influenza, transmission is by aerosol droplets which occur most heavily when patients are symptomatic (e.g., coughing and sneezing). The extent of transmission of coronavirus by asymptomatic patients creates a significant new uncertainty.

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  4. prije 17 sati

    Thread: uncertainties update. The latest reported Case Fatality Rate (based on confirmed cases) is 2.2, significantly below SARS and MERS. Much more troubling, however, are reports of transmission by non-symptomatic patients.

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  5. 30. sij

    Further cutting interest rates won't stimulate more investment when there is so much uncertainty about future demand, due to weak productivity growth, rising inequality, and high debt levels.

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  6. 29. sij

    This new chart from seems to epitomize 's "irrational exuberance" (and the impact of powerful narratives on ) at the end of a 10 yr expansion when many imbalances and rising are already apparent.

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  7. 28. sij

    Check out my latest article: Putting the Wuhan Coronavirus in Perspective via

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  8. 28. sij

    We have two critical uncertainties to resolve with more evidence: (1) the transmissibility of the Wuhan strain, which appears to be high, and (2) the pathogenicity (CFR), which at this point still appears to be relatively low. And remember to check the CFR denominator.

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  9. 28. sij

    For other , SARS' CFR was estimated to be around 10%, while MERS' was 35%. Very early estimates (based on very noisy reporting) have reported a preliminary CFR for the Wuhan strain of around 3%. But this will likely change as more data becomes available.

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  10. 28. sij

    To put Wuhan in perspective, the CFRs for Ebola and highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza are >60%. The 1918 pandemic flu was estimated at 10% - 20% (this strain was also highly transmissible which is why it killed so many). The 2009 H1N1 "swine" flu CFR was estimated at 5% - 9%.

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  11. 28. sij

    The number of infected people who dies is measured by the "Case Fatality Rate." However, this is a noisy estimate, because the denominator can be based on lab confirmed cases (which increases CFR) or just symptomatic cases (which lowers estimated CFR).

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  12. 28. sij

    When it comes to contagious viral diseases, there is usually a tradeoff between their transmissibility (how easily they spread) and their pathogenicity (how many people who become infected die). Viruses that quickly kill their infected hosts effectively limit their own spread.

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  13. 28. sij

    Thread: Putting the Wuhan in perspective: Comparative case fatality rates, and the trade-off to watch.

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  14. 24. sij

    Looking for something thought provoking to read on your way home from ? Here's our free forecast as we head into a dangerous decade: "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond".

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  15. 23. sij

    Special free forecast for as we head into a dangerous decade: "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond".

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  16. 23. sij

    Each month we send you the Evidence File that drives our macro forecast update, including high value and surprising info in tech, environ, econ, natsec, society, politics, and finmkts. The cumulative file is available online.

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  17. 22. sij

    We help leaders better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging threats. Get our special free analysis for : "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond"

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  18. 22. sij

    Good morning Davos! Special free analysis of "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond" for as we get ready to face what calls "the rising tide of uncertainty."

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  19. 21. sij

    Special free analysis for as we head into a dangerous decade: "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond".

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  20. 21. sij

    With extensive data, the latest Edelman Trust Barometer paints a grim picture of driven by the growing gulf between elite and mass trust in institutions and the impact of increasing inequality.

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