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Until the uncertainty surrounding asymptomatic transmission of
#coronavirus is resolved with more evidence, expect travel bans and other isolation measures to continue, as a prudent policy reaction at this stage.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
With influenza, transmission is by aerosol droplets which occur most heavily when patients are symptomatic (e.g., coughing and sneezing). The extent of transmission of
#Wuhan coronavirus by asymptomatic patients creates a significant new uncertainty.https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Thread:
#coronoaviruses uncertainties update. The latest reported Case Fatality Rate (based on confirmed cases) is 2.2, significantly below SARS and MERS. Much more troubling, however, are reports of transmission by non-symptomatic patients.#RIA#CFA#CFP#FRM#investing#riskPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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This new chart from
@IMFNews seems to epitomize@RobertJShiller's "irrational exuberance" (and the impact of powerful narratives on#investing) at the end of a 10 yr expansion when many imbalances and rising#risk are already apparent.#RIA#CFA#CFP#FRM#Advisorspic.twitter.com/0Gaut3plvy
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Check out my latest article: Putting the Wuhan Coronavirus in Perspective https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/putting-wuhan-coronavirus-perspective-tom-coyne … via
@LinkedInHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
We have two critical uncertainties to resolve with more evidence: (1) the transmissibility of the Wuhan strain, which appears to be high, and (2) the pathogenicity (CFR), which at this point still appears to be relatively low. And remember to check the CFR denominator.
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For other
#coronaviruses, SARS' CFR was estimated to be around 10%, while MERS' was 35%. Very early estimates (based on very noisy reporting) have reported a preliminary CFR for the Wuhan strain of around 3%. But this will likely change as more data becomes available.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
To put Wuhan in perspective, the CFRs for Ebola and highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza are >60%. The 1918 pandemic flu was estimated at 10% - 20% (this strain was also highly transmissible which is why it killed so many). The 2009 H1N1 "swine" flu CFR was estimated at 5% - 9%.
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The number of infected people who dies is measured by the "Case Fatality Rate." However, this is a noisy estimate, because the denominator can be based on lab confirmed cases (which increases CFR) or just symptomatic cases (which lowers estimated CFR).
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When it comes to contagious viral diseases, there is usually a tradeoff between their transmissibility (how easily they spread) and their pathogenicity (how many people who become infected die). Viruses that quickly kill their infected hosts effectively limit their own spread.
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Thread: Putting the Wuhan
#Coronavirus in perspective: Comparative case fatality rates, and the trade-off to watch.#RIA#CFA#CFP#Advisors#corpgov#nonexec#riskmanagement#strategyPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Looking for something thought provoking to read on your way home from
#WEF20? Here's our free forecast as we head into a dangerous decade: "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond".#RIA#investing#riskmanagement#corpgov#nonexec#strategy https://indexinvestor.com/resources/Free-Resources/Global_Macro_Risk_Dynamics_in_the_2020s_and_Beyond.pdf …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Special free forecast for
#WEF20 as we head into a dangerous decade: "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond".#RIA#CFA#CFP#FRM#investing#riskmanagement#corpgov#nonexec https://indexinvestor.com/resources/Free-Resources/Global_Macro_Risk_Dynamics_in_the_2020s_and_Beyond.pdf …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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We help leaders better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging threats. Get our special free analysis for
#WEF20: "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond"#investing#corpgov#CFA#nonexec https://indexinvestor.com/resources/Free-Resources/Global_Macro_Risk_Dynamics_in_the_2020s_and_Beyond.pdf …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Good morning Davos! Special free analysis of "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond" for
#WEF20 as we get ready to face what@PwC calls "the rising tide of uncertainty."#RIA#CFA#investing#strategy#risk#corpgov#nonexec#board#ceo https://indexinvestor.com/resources/Free-Resources/Global_Macro_Risk_Dynamics_in_the_2020s_and_Beyond.pdf …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Special free analysis for
#WEF20#WEF2020 as we head into a dangerous decade: "Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond".#RIA#CFA#CFP#FRM#strategy#riskmanagement#corpgov#nonexec https://indexinvestor.com/resources/Free-Resources/Global_Macro_Risk_Dynamics_in_the_2020s_and_Beyond.pdf …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
With extensive data, the latest Edelman Trust Barometer paints a grim picture of
#investing#risk driven by the growing gulf between elite and mass trust in institutions and the impact of increasing inequality.#RIA#CFA#FRM#CFP#Advisors https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2020-01/2020%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Global%20Report_LIVE.pdf …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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