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The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX - Epsilon Theory

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Fun fact: for the cost of a Super Bowl ad, which is over in 30 seconds, you could run an out of home (OOH) campaign in the top 27 US markets *for a full month* --this could also include ads inside restaurants/bars that play the big game -- and reach nearly 1B total impressions

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Joe Pompliano

@JoePompliano

Feb 1

Cost Of A 30-Second Super Bowl Ad: 1967: $42,500 1970: $78,000 1975: $107,000 1980: $222,000 1985: $525,000 1990: $700,000 1995: $1.2 million 2000: $2 million 2005: $2.4 million 2010: $3 million 2015: $4.25 million 2021: $5.5 million 2022: $6.5 million 2023: $7 million Crazy

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The MacGuffin is the object of desire. It is the thing around which the plot of the story revolves. Here is the story arc of SBF and FTX, and the MacGuffin that anchored it all - the Magical Money Machine.

epsilontheory.com

The MacGuffin is the object of desire. It is the thing around which the plot of the story revolves. Here is the story arc of SBF and FTX, and the MacGuffin that anchored it all - the Magical Money...

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931

the internet runs on undiscovered growth channels

I was going to do a Twitter thread about this post – about how it's wrong to assume that Substack is part of a "newsletter economy" – but Erik's tweet gets to the point better.

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Erik Hoel

@erikphoel

Oct 13, 2022

Here's @hamishmckenzie giving the correct take on @SubstackInc. Substack is basically OnlyFans, but for minds. on.substack.com/p/please-stop-

Oct 15, 2022

We're of course big fans of

@Dmurr68

& now also

@sheetaverma

, be sure to add this one to your playlist!

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Let’s get one thing clear, startup marketing is a whole different game. It’s all about creativity and scrappiness. I’ve grown multiple startups from the ground up, I talk all about it on the latest episode of @MarketingFOMO open.spotify.com/episode/2Dy7qO

Oct 14, 2022

Three key questions to ask potential digital analytics team members adamsinger.substack.com/p/three-key-qu [new on Hot Takes, open to all free & paid subscribers]

Three key questions to ask potential digital analytics team members

Lots of folk are in the market for talented digital analytics professionals. Here's a few of my favorite questions to ask potential hires...

We're here to help you navigate the coming storm and continue to ship, measure and optimize ads that actually reach your users, no matter what changes big tech companies implement

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dennis hegstad

@dennishegstad

Oct 13, 2022

apple broke modern digital advertising

If you've been procrastinating on starting a Substack because it seemed like a big hassle to figure out how to do it, I wrote this post for you... including the clickbait title 😉

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Substack

@SubstackInc

Oct 11, 2022

How to start a Substack in three easy steps by @SubstackLinda financefaq.substack.com/p/how-to-start

Hot Takes Retweeted

Executive MBA Students

@CornellEMBA

Oct 13, 2022

An introduction to neuro-linguistic programming: pseudoscience or useful framework? buff.ly/3ViexYT via

An introduction to neuro-linguistic programming: pseudoscience or useful framework?

Neuro-linguistic programming [NLP] is contested as actual science. However, I still think it's worth exploring briefly and what takeaways may prove useful.

Big win! I seeded

FIVE years ago and they continue to ship & thrive. OOH is the only ad that people want to make go viral. With new tech, it's only gonna get better, too. medium.com/initialized-ca

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Adam Singer

A butterfly effect requires more than just a butterfly.

Oct 10, 2022

What if it was as easy to manage, measure/attribute and optimize physical-world OOH media as it was digital? It’s a hard problem that AdQuick has a solution for today. Many fortune 500 companies, top startups, and early adopter agencies are already users.

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Today’s world has a surplus of hastily formed opinions and a severe shortage of honest reflection.

invariant.substack.com

Cascades

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Just got around to reading this piece by

. Loved it...and agree 100%.

Niche overrated, personality underrated (and perhaps the only thing that's left)

Stop copying growth hacker playbooks and regurgitating commodified ideas 1,000 people already shared precisely the same commentary on. It's an unwinnable game. Play the winnable one...

Today's Substack is about the stench of neoliberal and conservative "free market" thinking, and how the old and rich would rather see you suffer and die than admit how unfair they've made the world today.

ez.substack.com

The Free Market Hates You

Of all the lies I was told growing up, I think the most conspicuous was the concept of meritocracy. Working hard was why people were successful, and if you worked hard, you too would be successful....

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Hot Takes Retweeted

Lee Odden - B2B Marketing

@leeodden

Sep 26, 2022

Smart advice from

Don't feed the trolls: never take unconstructive criticism personally

Don't feed the trolls: never take unconstructive criticism personally

A quick primer (and for many just a reminder) on why you should never let purposefully negative feedback get under your skin, and thoughts on what to do instead...

breakingpoint.substack.com

Sep 25, 2022

Until you find Product/Market Fit you aren’t a business, you're an experiment breakingpoint.substack.com/p/you-are-not- [via

@sbyrnes

]

You Are Not a Business, Yet

Until you find Product/Market Fit you aren’t a business, you are an experiment.

“The real investment theses were quite simple: tell a good enough story to the masses, and the masses just might believe it. If the masses believe a story, they might buy it. And if they buy it, you can make a lot of money selling it.” On SPACs.

youngmoney.co

A Memoir to Chamath and the SPAC Bubble | Young Money by Jack Raines

The best finance blog you've never heard of. 10/10 stories, 5/10 art.

One of my favorite newsletters

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Adam Singer

Join my personal email list and get my daily take on life, markets and investing for profit and joy. And I might talk about my prostate, so what do you have to lose?

Sep 21, 2022

New Substack: on taking the extra step everyone forgets ...marketers know to create case studies, it's bread & butter tactic we use for storytelling. But you don't need to be a marketer to do this. Literally everyone can (and should). Let us learn from you adamsinger.substack.com/p/take-the-ext

After a pandemic and multiple financial crises, we've finally entered a lengthy period of rising interest rates. But while most are aware of the ominous outcomes this could create, those who know how the Fed actually controls rates will gain an edge in predicting the future... 1/

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4,760

2 people am lucky to call friends run amazing sites if you want to get smarter at marketing, I learn from them daily:

@lulumeservey

is one of best marcom pros in the biz: lulu.substack.com/welcome

@amandanat

is OG influencer marketer & shares thoughts at: amandanat.substack.com/welcome

Hit pieces come for every mission-driven startup. These attacks are not only unfair but can be deeply personal, insulting founders’ ability, integrity, gender, intelligence, politics, relationships, and even appearance. But the good news is that hit pieces can backfire.

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Proud to be part of a team that just raised $15m in this current fundraising climate

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Northbeam

@northbeam

Aug 16, 2022

We have some news: We raised $15 million in a Series A led by Silversmith Capital Partners! @MadelineLStone from @BusinessInsider has the exclusive. businessinsider.com/northbeam-rais

In Hindsight... Curiosity and Focusing on Things You are Good At are My Keys to Long-Term Success Some Thoughts on my blog

howardlindzon.com

Howie's List

“Money is only as valuable as the experiences that it buys, and your window of opportunity to realize some experiences is quite short.” Wrote this on an airplane last night at like 10 PM, hope u enjoy.

youngmoney.co

Can't Take It with You | Young Money by Jack Raines

The best finance blog you've never heard of. 10/10 stories, 5/10 art.

We personally recommend

to our Substack subscribers and of course also to follow here on Twitter - they'll make your feed better

Aug 15, 2022

New Substack post to start your week: are you trying too hard?

People thirst-posting copy-paste threads about mental models on Saturday morning when they should be out with their dog hiking or whatnot, this one is for you...

Are you trying too hard?

Hot Takes Retweeted

Lee Odden - B2B Marketing

@leeodden

Aug 8, 2022

What are the best practices top digital marketing agencies use in reporting?

@Google

and

@TopRank

alumni

The psychology of Apple packaging

has you covered: bit.ly/3BNt7jw

Steve Jobs believed unboxing could be “like theatre”. And great packaging is one of Apple’s main marketing principle. Apple designs its boxes with a deep understanding of human psychology (and it is why you don’t throw them away). I wrote about it here:

trungphan.substack.com

Steve jobs and Jony Ive prioritized packaging, which they said could be "theatre".

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You can check out Life Itself here and subscribe for free posts. First one, "A 7 year story," is an intro and overview of what we'll cover. gerard.substack.com H/T to

I write about carving your own path in work and life through continuous learning. Click to read Life Itself, by Gerard Dawson, a Substack publication with thousands of readers.

for sharing the Substack playbook and advice on getting started.

gerard.substack.com

Life Itself

If you don't listen to

@jposhaughnessy

's podcasts be sure to add him to your subscriber list. Jim makes us smarter every day. We're also big fans of

@SuperMugatu

, so don't miss this particular episode

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Jim O'Shaughnessy

@jposhaughnessy

Jul 21, 2022

New episode of @InfiniteL88ps is up

My friend @SuperMugatu and I have a broad discussion on the current state of markets. We cover the agency problem within asset management; behavioral risks in investing and how it's alway ultimately you vs. you. infiniteloopspodcast.com/115

So grateful to top-notch

writers

for recommending my newsletter. See them in action here: timelesstimely.com Social proof is powerful!

Friends (& former colleagues)

@toprank

put together a 2022 report on B2B influencer marketing w/lots of fun research. If you think influencer mktg is just tiktok dances selling DtC underwear, you're wrong. Actually might matter more for B2B. IYKYK. Link: toprankblog.com/2022/07/b2b-in

Launch day! Today at

we are launching the Credo Learn Center, a new way to find top-notch digital marketing and agency growth courses taught by experts. We've curated an initial set and will be adding more over time! Check it out (and share!)

getcredo.com

A new way to learn digital marketing - Credo

This post titled "A new way to learn digital marketing" was published on the Credo blog to help companies do a better job of marketing, hiring, and growing through good digital marketing.

Jul 20, 2022

New on our site: Digital brand warfare: starting cat & mouse games w/competitors (and even audiences) adamsinger.substack.com/p/digital-bran [open to all subscribers free & paid]

Digital brand warfare: starting cat & mouse games w/competitors (and even audiences)

Baiting competitors/audiences, drawing attention to their strategies & practices, poking at hot topics are all in the same timeless marketing archetype category. They're also potentially dangerous.

Sometimes the hardest thing to do is just admit that you don't know and just ask for help.

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“Hey nice meeting you, here’s my business card” is about to be obliterated by Seedscout. And no, we aren’t making a better business card.

I had a 70 minute commute each way. Totally demoralizing to look at work clock, see it’s 7 pm (a normal hour to be at work), and start doing the math of the car ride home.

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Adam Singer

Jul 15, 2022

Remember: It's not the office making you unhappy, it's your long commute ...research shows it, and it's been true long before the pandemic --> adamsinger.substack.com/p/ditching-you

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ourtinyrebellions.substack.com

Jul 15, 2022

Friendship can be fluid if we just let it flow ourtinyrebellions.substack.com/p/friendship-c [via

@averagejoelle

]

Friendship can be fluid if we just let it flow

Just because we couldn't see eye-to-eye during the Years When Big Things Happen doesn’t mean we can’t come full circle now.

Jul 15, 2022

New post for some Friday inspiration: on passion, your secret weapon in the knowledge economy (is the one thing no one can outsource or automate away)

Passion: a secret weapon of the knowledge economy and the thing you can't outsource

Intelligence and specialized skills are par for the course: we have to find ways to pair them with purpose, opinions and drive -for ourselves and our teams

Should You Care What Other People Think?

Jul 13, 2022

Should You Care What Other People Think? wggtb.substack.com/p/should-you-c [a fun timeless question

@dailydirtnap

gives perspectives on]

wggtb.substack.com

That is an interesting question. If I were to run a Twitter poll on this, 90% of people would say no—you shouldn’t care what people think. Everyone likes to say that they don’t care what other people...