Short summary: 🇺🇦 defenses have held; its air force is still flying; air-defense still in parts intact; troops are digging in in Kyiv. Morale is high. No signs of imminent collapse. A very bloody day/night ahead I am afraid to say. 🇷🇺 will massively step up military pressure.
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Franz-Stefan Gady
@HoansSolo
Modern & Future Warfare; High-Intensity Warfighting; Military Doctrine, Technology, & Strategy | Personal Account |
London, EnglandJoined March 2009
Franz-Stefan Gady’s Tweets
“The Russians are fighting like Zhukov. They send wave after wave but our guys figured out they fight just like Soviets. The tank commander is always in the first tank, so we shoot it. Once you shoot the first and last tanks, they’re immobilised.”
Interesting interview with the CEO of Rheinmetall:
"When it comes to tank ammunition, we have the largest production capacity in the world. There is no problem." Re: 155mm art. shells production: "We can currently produce 450,000 shots..per year..."
With the exception of the U.S, no other Western-style military can conduct sustained combined arms operations at scale. So Ukrainian forces are attempting to do something at the tactical level no other European NATO member is currently capable of.
Nazi Germany's 'Blitzkrieg' in the West in May & June 1940 was fueled by Soviet energy & food exports.
In May, June 1940, the Soviet Union supplied Germany with 163,000 tons of petroleum & 243,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat.
The 🇺🇦 mayor of Kramatorsk: “Let me give you my professional opinion as mayor: if we don’t get heavy weapons in two or three weeks, we’re fucked.”
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine 👇🧵
Russia has moved around 75% of its forces it had previously deployed along the U. borders into 🇺🇦 (per US DoD). Appears that only a fraction of these have been engaged in combat yet.🇷🇺 forces are massing for assault on Kyiv.
New🧵: , , ,& I spent some time this month visiting the frontlines in Ukraine to gain new insights into the ongoing counteroffensive & the war overall. Here are some general observations.
Real-time intelligence sharing: „The US gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way…“
Hey , Germany has not been bordering Italy since 1945 when Austria was still part of the Third Reich.
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Germany is currently not considering closing the country’s borders with Italy due to the coronavirus outbreak, its foreign ministry said cnn.it/2uqYU9V
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 2) 👇🧵
~80 percent of the combat power that 🇷🇺 had pre-deployed along the 🇺🇦 has now entered the country (per US DoD). Overall operational picture has seen some change over the past 24 hours (caveat: the fog of war).
DDR
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Is there a German word for wanting to travel and knowing you can't? Asking for a friend.
“Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army,” 🇬🇧’s Radakin said. “Last year it fired 10mn artillery shells but at best can produce 1mn shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 [new] tanks a year,” he said.
(Very) short summary military situation in Ukraine (March 14) 👇🧵
Frontlines remain largely unchanged:
-stalled 🇷🇺 advance in North.
-🇷🇺 advance in South/East appears slow.
- 🇷🇺 made most progress in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts
- 🇺🇦 defenses remain intact.
map:
Trump cancelled his visit to Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in n. France today. FWIW 1.2 mil. Americans fought in the Meuse-Argonne including this future US president #ArmisticeDay #Armistice100
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And all of these combined arms operations are being conducted without Ukraine having achieved air superiority, something no Western-style military, including the United States, has any experience in.
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 16) 👇🧵
Limited🇷🇺 progress:
-slow 🇷🇺 advances in North to encircle Kyiv.
-Cont. 🇷🇺 slow but steady advances in South/East (especially in Donetsk Oblast
- 🇺🇦 defenses remain intact; some counterattacks
succeeded.
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine on April 18:
- 🇺🇦 forces have reportedly seized Bairak, part of Kutuzivka in north-east (near Kharkiv) & Lebyazhe, Bazalievka in east; 🇺🇦 forces also reportedly counter-attacked near Kreminna.
map:
Germany is considering sending counter-battery radars, surveillance radars for C-UAVs, and cameras for observation at extremely long range to Ukraine.
"The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours," said Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. They "cannot explain why Ukraine is still hanging on. Why is that?"
🇷🇺 attacks so far appear to be methodical & rely heavily on ground-based fires.
-22 🇷🇺 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) have reportedly massed in the Izium area for offensive operations.
- Overall, 76 BTGs in Donbas region & in🇺🇦's southeast (per U.S. DoD).
map:
More significant military news today:
"Production of the 155-millimeter shells badly needed by Kyiv will rise to 90,000 a month in two years."
That's a 500% increase in production in 2 years.
My colleagues at the 🇦🇹military academy’s R&D department under Col. M. Reisner did a quick analysis of this action. 1st time we saw a 🇷🇺BTG at (least in part) operating how it is supposed to at the tactical level (execution is another matter).
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0:43
UAV footage showing Ukrainian attacks on a Russian armored column in Brovary, including that captured T-72A tank. According to the audio, the regimental commander was killed. It appears it was a mix of Ukrainian artillery and tank strikes on the column.
facebook.com/UkrainianLandF
According to a now deleted interview with a Ukrainian officer, NATO tank workshops in Eastern Europe can repair/refit 20-30 Ukrainian main battle tanks per month. This translates into 2-3 tank companies per month for Ukrainian ground forces.
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine 👇🧵
Most important development IMO:🇷🇺 forces have reportedly crossed Dnpr in the South a. are advancing north of Nova Kakhovka meeting heavy 🇺🇦 resistance. This means Russian forces could cut off bulk of 🇺🇦 forces east of Dnpr.
I am seeing various reports that an increasing number of Russian soldiers on short-term contracts have resigned over the past few weeks. Furthermore, many Russian soldiers allegedly refuse to extend their long-term contracts that have expired.
Ukraine will reportedly receive an additional 14 Leopard 2 main battle tanks. Denmark and the Netherlands financed the purchase of the tanks from Rheinmetall.
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Also, noticed some logistical difficulties (🇷🇺Russian armor running out of fuel); also seems that some units got lost. Learning curve for the attacker during these types of mil. operations is always steeper/bloodier than for the defender.
Re. Lyman: Not if but when (& I suspect soon.)
map:
„Ukrainian commanders estimate that Himars are responsible for 70% of military advances on the Kherson front…“
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Some 🇷🇺 2nd echelon troops have moved in; despite rapid progress on some fronts casualties have been heavy; noticeable reckless behavior of some units (e.g., operating outside air defense bubbles); lack of inter-service coordination; noticeable combined arms maneuver deficits.
The "Pentagon and the Israelis reached an agreement to move about 300,000 155-millimeter shells [from a stockpile of American ammunition in Israel], Israeli and American officials said."
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Quantitative/qualitative advantage still lies with Russia. Still, this could turn out to be Russia's bloodiest war since the Soviet invasion/occupation of Afghanistan. Too early for any conclusions though. This is just the first 48+ hours of the conflict.
“[T]he 2-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians.” Great reporting by 👇
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Note: Estimates are that 🇷🇺 committed only a little more than 1/3 of forces. 🇷🇺operational tempo will step up, after regrouping. There was no🇷🇺 wide-scale combined arms attack on Kyiv. What we are seeing right now are attempts to seal off the city and to probe its defenses.
That’s what successful information warfare looks like. h/t
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine (Donbas) on April 20:
- 🇷🇺 long-range fires & probing attacks continue
- 🇷🇺 forces have reached outskirts of Lozove
- 🇷🇺 forces have taken control of Kreminna & are pushing toward Zarichne and Torske
map:
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But soldiers fighting on the frontline we spoke to are all too aware that lack of progress is often more due to force employment, poor tactics, lack of coordination btw. units, bureaucratic red tape/infighting, Soviet style thinking etc. & ...Russians putting up stiff resistance.
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 10) 👇🧵
🇷🇺 forces continue to consolidate their holdings.
Slow🇷🇺 advance in North:
-Near Hostomel Airport to the West
-Near Sumy pushing to Kyiv from the East
-Push near Cherniv is stalled
(map: )
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🇷🇺 forces are still in the process of regrouping, getting re-supplied, a. adapting. There is little evidence of BTGs operating as whole units; Russian air power is still holding back it seems; Reports of low 🇷🇺morale--especially among conscripts--could turn into a real problem.
#Australia will be armed with long-range missiles for the 1st time as part of a $270 billion build-up of the Defence Force over the next decade as the Morrison government looks to keep up with the regional arms race being fueled by China's militarization.
Russians failing to take cities should not be used to measure Russian operational success or failure to date since this does not seem to have been the 🇷🇺 primary operational objective in this stage of the war.
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Expect to see more 🇷🇺combined arms maneuver/combat in coming days; heavier reliance on ground-based fires/more use of airpower. As others have pointed out, we will likely see BTGs fighting as whole units. Alas, this means we are entering a much deadlier phase of the conflict.
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“We didn’t have a single tank against them, just rocket-propelled grenades, Javelin missiles and the help of artillery,” said Vadym Dombrovsky, commander of the Ukrainian special-forces reconnaissance group in the area and a Voznesensk resident. “
#New: Map of Ukraine showing off-road conditions for tracked vehicles (e.g., tanks, infantry fighting vehicles etc.) over 30 tons in spring.
🟩: traversable
🟨: difficult to traverse
🟥: impassable
map: 🇦🇹 Institute for Military Geography
Ukrainian forces has pushed the Russian military about 40 km back from the centre of Kharkiv (assume he means in the northeast) per senior US defense official.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken the town of Staryi Saltiv.
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Replying to @War_Mapper
Updates:
carried out an offensive in the direction of Staryi Slativ. The extent of territory recaptured isn’t yet clear.
carried out an offensive in the direction of Staryi Slativ. The extent of territory recaptured isn’t yet clear.
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 15) 👇🧵
Frontlines remain largely steady:
-stalled 🇷🇺 advance in North.
-Cont. 🇷🇺 slow advance in South/East.
- Again,🇷🇺 made most progress in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts
- 🇺🇦 defenses remain intact.
map:
Swift delivery of heavy weapons & other equipment could shorten Putin's war of aggression in Ukraine by helping 🇺🇦 forces blunt the impending Russian offensive in the Donbas & enable 🇺🇦counterattacks that could potentially result in a major tactical defeat for Russia.
(Very) short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 17) 👇🧵
Limited/stalled🇷🇺 progress:
-no noticeable🇷🇺 advances in North to encircle Kyiv.
-Cont. 🇷🇺 slow advances in South/East
-🇺🇦 reportedly launched various counter-attacks
map:
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🇺🇦 air defenses are still operational; morale remains high; and there are no signs of imminent collapse. 🇺🇦 air force appears to have suffered greatly (unclear what remains of it). 🇺🇦 are also holding on to urban terrain; counterattack and fight coordinated delaying actions.
Nonsense. The Edelweiss was adapted as an emblem by the imperial & royal mountain warfare forces (k.k. Gebirgstruppe) in 1907 & the Imperial German mountain warfare forces (Alpenkorps) in 1915. Both Austrian & German mountain warfare troops wear the Edelweiss to this day.
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No Nazis in Ukraine they say?
For those blind and deaf, here's yet another piece of evidence: On Valentine's day Zelensky officially named a Ukrainian division Edelweiss – after the infamous Nazi Wehrmacht unit, responsible for its war crimes.
MSM still keeping mum?
Readers added context
The presidential decree on the naming of this brigade does not indicate that the brigade has been named "after" anything but the edelweiss flower.
president.gov.ua/documents/8020…
The Russian National Guard has a special forces unit also named "Edelweiss"
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D1…
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In late May, June following the Wehrmacht's breakthrough through the Ardennes, the Soviets supplied nearly 4,000 tons of oil per day to fuel the Germans advance across France.
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Chatted with my colleague Markus Reisner (Austrian 🇦🇹Armed Forces) about the three top operational problems of the 🇺🇦 forces in the days ahead. 1.) Collapse of Kyiv 2) Encirclement in the East 3.) Cut off of supply lines from West/ deny regrouping of 🇺🇦 forces.
The Leopard II main battle tank was designed to be operated by an army primarily consisting of conscripts with relatively limited training time available.Intense training periods of 4-6 weeks should suffice to train a crew.Platoon/company commanders need perhaps 2-4 extra weeks.*
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2.) Ukrainian forces have still not mastered combined arms operations at scale. Operations are more sequential than synchronized. This creates various problems for the offense & IMO is the main cause for slow progress.
Short summary of mil. situation in Ukraine: 🇺🇦 forces by and large are fighting orderly delaying actions; morale remains very high; air-defenses still operational; air force remains active (armed UAVs are hitting 🇷🇺 targets of opportunity); 🇺🇦mechanized forces counterattack.
The US manufacturer makes about 9000 HIMARS missiles per year. At the below expenditure rate of missiles, the entire annual US peacetime production would be spend in less than 2 month in Ukraine.
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Replying to @MarkHertling
-16 HIMARS in Ukraine.
-Each HIMARS fires a minimum (MINIMUM!) of 2 pods/day
-Each pod has 6 missiles...12 missiles/HIMAR/Day
-12 missiles x 16 HIMARS = 192 missiles/day
In 1 month, 16 launchers will fire approx 5800 missiles & accurately hit about 5200 (90%) targets. 7/
Germany's chancellor confronting anti-war protestors on May 1: "I respect every kind of pacifism. I respect every opinion. But it must seem cynical to a citizen of Ukraine when he's told he must defend himself against Putin's aggression without weapons. Those days are over."
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Military defeat is often like Ernest Hemingway’s observation on going bankrupt: “Gradually, then suddenly.”
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3.) 🇺🇦 forces by default have switched to a strategy of attrition relying on sequential fires rather than maneuver. This is the reason why cluster munitions are critical to extend current fire rates into the fall: weakening Russian defenses to a degree that enables maneuver.
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Ukraine will have to better synchronize & adapt current tactics, without which western equipment will not prove tac. decisive in the long run. This is happening but it is slow work in progress. (Most NATO-style militaries would struggle with this even more than the 🇺🇦s IMO).
A failed 🇺🇦counter-offensive to retake parts of Kherson province could have much more severe long-term strategic consequences for Ukraine than losing additional territory in the Donbas.
Indeed, the battle over Kherson city could be Ukraine's defining "Saratoga moment."
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🇷🇺 forces are in the process of regrouping, getting re-supplied, a. adapting to 🇺🇦 attacks. While 🇷🇺 are still committing tactical blunders, there are signs emerging that 🇷🇺 have abandoned their "mad dashes" to occupy key territory without support and coordinate better.
It appears that Russian forces no longer have full control of Luhansk Oblast.
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A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 19/09/22.
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From what I know this by still captures the operational picture adequately. We might see first heavy urban combat in the city of Mariupol in coming days. Watch for breakthroughs in the South. Goal is still to encircle Ukrainian forces where possible.
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Counteroffensive:
1.) By and large this is an infantryman’s fight (squad, platoon & company level) supported by artillery along most of the frontline. This has several implications: 1st: Progress is measured by yards/meters and not km/miles given reduced mobility.
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4.) Minefields are a problem as most observers know. They confine maneuver space & slow advances. But much more impactful than the minefields per se on Ukraine’s ability to break through Russian defenses is 🇺🇦s inability to conduct complex combined arms operations at scale.
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„The drone reconnaissance unit has a vital job. They travel ahead of the artillery to a sector, usually just 1 or 2km from the front, and send up a drone to look for a target — anything from armour or troops (or sometimes to cover their infantry).“
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2nd: Mechanized formations are rarely deployed due to lack of enablers for maneuver. This includes insufficient quantities of de-mining equipment, air defenses, ATGMs etc.
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On the PzH2000 self-propelled howitzer: "We actually say that the barrel needs to be changed after about 4500 shots. The Ukrainians, however, shoot up to 20,000 shots..."
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Since the Russian military convoy up in the North was in the new a lot yesterday.The fact that it exists can tell you three things:
1: 🇺🇦 have depleted their surface-to-surface strike capabilities
2: 🇺🇦 air power has been severely reduced
3: 🇷🇺 air/missile defenses are in place
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 7) 👇🧵
Again, no major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇷🇺 forces appear to be regrouping and getting re-supplied while preparing new offensives in North, South, East.
Main 🇷🇺objective remains Kyiv.
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Russians continue to suffer from supply problems and are taking heavy casualties. Losses, however, are not at a level that they are yet unsustainable for 🇷🇺 forces [All of casualty figures should be treated with extreme caution of course.] oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack
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(Again, I cannot emphasize enough how difficult this is to pull off in wartime.)
Monocausal explanations for failure (like lack of de-mining equipment) do not reflect reality. E.g., some Ukrainian assaults were stopped by Russian ATGMs even before reaching the 1st 🇷🇺 minefield.
The 🇨🇳military exercises “are tantamount to an air and sea blockade of Taiwan”, said General Yu Chien-chang, a senior official at the Taiwan’s defence ministry’s legal department. “They overlap with our territorial waters and airspace and severely violate our sovereignty.”
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Lack of a comprehensive combined arms approach at scale makes Ukrainian forces more vulnerable to Russian ATGMs, artillery etc. while advancing. So it's not just about equipment. There’s simply no systematic pulling apart of the Russian defensive system that I could observe.
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15.) The narrative that Ukrainian progress thus far is slow just because of a lack of weapons deliveries and support is monocausal & is not shared by those we spoke to actually fighting & exercising command on the frontline.
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War is fundamentally a contest of wills:”But those models don’t — and can’t — account for the Ukrainian people’s will to fight on behalf of their homeland.”
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„Then they figure out the coordinates, telegraph the artillery guys and observe the subsequent strike.“ Great piece of reporting by .
A few quick thoughts on the ongoing 🇺🇦 Ukrainian counteroffensive:
1.) From what I was able to observe over the last 72 hours, it appears that we have a entered the ‘’main phase’ of the counteroffensive, although the bulk of Ukrainian forces has not been committed AFAIK.
💯: “Tank for tank the Nato armour is superior. But this is a full scale ground war in which the numbers of vehicles fielded and how well they are fought matters far more than the qualities of individual pieces of equipment”. h/t
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5.) The character of this offensive will only likely change if there is a more systematic approach to breaking through Russian defenses, perhaps paired with or causing a severe degradation of Russian morale, that will lead to a sudden or gradual collapse of Russian defenses.
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16.) It goes without saying that in a war of attrition, more artillery ammunition & hardware is always needed and needs to be steadily supplied. (Western support of Ukraine certainly should continue as there is still the prospect that the counteroffensive will make gains.)
Österreich sollte sich an der EU-Ausbildungsmission für bis zu 15.000 ukrainische Soldaten beteiligen. Irland tut es auch. Die Neutralität ist keine Entschuldigung für fehlende Solidarität & sicherheitspolitische Trittbrettfahrerei.
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Absent a sudden collapse of Russian defenses, I suspect this will remain a bloody attritional fight with reserve units being fed in incrementally in the coming weeks & months.
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14.) Quality of Ukrainian officers and NCOs we met appears excellent & morale remains high. However, there are some force quality issues emerging with less able bodied & older men called up for service now.
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"With the Spanish manufacturer Expal, which we would like to take over in the course of the summer, we intend to expand our joint capacity to up to 600,000 shots."
A serious problem in planning against Russian doctrine is that the Russians do not read their manuals, nor do they feel any obligation to follow their doctrine.
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8.) Russian artillery rationing is real & happening. Ukraine has established fire superiority in tube artillery while Russia retains superiority in MRLSs in the South. Localized fire superiority in some calibers alone does not suffice, however, to break through Russian defenses.
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Russians also had no need to deploy operational reserves yet to fend off Ukrainian attacks.There is also evidence of reduced impact of HIMARS strikes due to effective Russian countermeasures. (This is important to keep in mind re. any potential tac. impact of delivery of ATACMs.)
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Side note: the apparent deficits in Russian military communication genuinely surprised me. Another piece of evidence how tactically/logistically/operationally poorly this early stage of the campaign has been handled by 🇷🇺.
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Ok, I can understand botched 
logistics but this is truly mind boggling and nothing you would expect. twitter.com/sbreakintl/sta…
logistics but this is truly mind boggling and nothing you would expect. twitter.com/sbreakintl/sta…'Honestly, they're all going to die' What Russian soldiers who have already fought in Ukraine think about Putin's mobilization effort h/t
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12.) So far Ukraine’s approach in this counteroffensive has been first and foremost direct assaults on Russian positions supported by a rudimentary deep battle approach. And no, these direct assaults are not mere probing attacks.
The man who ordered Russian tanks to cross the Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022 is the greatest practical strengthener of NATO military power in Eastern Europe in the 21st century.
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9.) An additional influx of weapons systems (e.g., ATACMs, air defense systems, MBTs, IFVs etc.) while important to sustain the war effort, will likely not have a decisive tactical impact without adaptation and more effective integration.
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6.) There is limited evidence of a systematic deep battle that methodically degrades Russian C2/munitions. Despite rationing on the Russian side, ammunition is available and Russians appear to have fairly good battlefield ISR coverage.
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7.) Quality of Russian forces varies. Attrition is hitting them hard but they are defending their positions well, according to Ukrainians we spoke to. They have been quite adaptable at the tactical level and are broadly defending according to Soviet/Russian doctrine.
Mobile military analysis center somewhere in the Donbas.
, , & yours truly comparing notes & typing up some of our findings from a recent visit to a 🇺🇦frontline unit.
