Hide Not Slide on Twitter: "Other than this, there aren't many instances of clearinghouses losing money or facing collapse. Even in the height of COVID when big firms like Ronin blew up, it had no impact on CME's CH contribution or any other member funds. https://t.co/T3fmTYgvJk"

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Now, secrecy - we go to the clearinghouse (CME Clearing, for example) and open a futures position with max leverage. CME doesn't know about our OTC trade & we don't mention it. Leverage + leverage = the makings of a CH blowup.

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Lastly, we need luck. A TON of luck. First, our OTC trade needs to go wrong & produce billions of losses in a single trading day. Then our CH position needs to go wrong AT THE SAME TIME, again in a single trading day. CME and our bank won't be able to settle in time.

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Now we have a problem - a user (us) faced with massive losses & no money to cover it. We enter the CH's first line of defense - the clearing member. If the clearing member has the money to cover our loss, the blowup ends right there. No systemic damage done.pic.twitter.com/mN4nkX4NtB

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Let's say our loss dwarfs the clearing member's bank account. CME will then sell off the remains of our position to pay some of the loss, followed by its CH contribution - ~$100 million. Still no systemic damage done.pic.twitter.com/AbrI0jBEWL

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Let's say our loss dwarfs the $100 million CME contribution. What then? Enter the Guaranty Fund. Every other CME clearing member has to deposit money into this fund to cover losses like the one we're causing. As of Q1 2021 CME's Guaranty Fund was ~$5 billion.pic.twitter.com/mzF7g5lugI

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Let's say our loss is EVEN bigger than the guaranty fund amount. What then? CME's last defense is called "assessment powers". This allows CME to call on its members to contribute extra capital in the event of an emergency. The more members in a CH, the more $ it can call.pic.twitter.com/rGhnyfQ5iH

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

So to bring CME's clearinghouse down we would need losses surpassing: Our clearing member's capital CME's $100M contribution A $5 billion Guaranty Fund The funds of every other member called by assessment powers Our loss would have to be MANY billions of dollars to do this.

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

This doesn't even consider the $180 BILLION of margin deposits held by the clearinghouse for other users throughout the system. If it truly came to that, CME could in theory start dipping into this $ to cover losses at the expense of other users.pic.twitter.com/jRs70Sz4IN

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Okay, hypothetical situation aside, has a CH come close to blowing up? Honestly, no. Not even CLOSE. Nasdaq's 2018 Nordic power blowup may be the biggest example:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordic-power-nasdaq/nasdaq-restores-nordic-clearing-buffer-after-power-trader-default-idUSKCN1LX0WD …

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

A European power trader single handedly lost enough money to wipe out Nasdaq's small Member Default Fund (~$125 million). Members had to refill the fund or face default themselves. Nasdaq also spent $22 million refilling the fund with its own money.

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Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Aug 10

Other than this, there aren't many instances of clearinghouses losing money or facing collapse. Even in the height of COVID when big firms like Ronin blew up, it had no impact on CME's CH contribution or any other member funds.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html …

12:53 PM - 10 Aug 2021

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1. Mark Schaedel‏ @markschaedel Aug 10
  Replying to @HideNotSlide
  
  Remember Adler Coleman in late 90’s
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