Let's put ourselves in the shoes of one of these users. Remember, we want to blow up this CH network. How do we do it? We need to take on a ton of leverage & lose it all. Massive unpaid losses are a CH's Kryptonite.
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Okay, hypothetical situation aside, has a CH come close to blowing up? Honestly, no. Not even CLOSE. Nasdaq's 2018 Nordic power blowup may be the biggest example:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordic-power-nasdaq/nasdaq-restores-nordic-clearing-buffer-after-power-trader-default-idUSKCN1LX0WD …
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A European power trader single handedly lost enough money to wipe out Nasdaq's small Member Default Fund (~$125 million). Members had to refill the fund or face default themselves. Nasdaq also spent $22 million refilling the fund with its own money.
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Other than this, there aren't many instances of clearinghouses losing money or facing collapse. Even in the height of COVID when big firms like Ronin blew up, it had no impact on CME's CH contribution or any other member funds.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html …
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The only way for a clearinghouse to truly collapse would be if MULTIPLE users & clearing members suffered ungodly losses simultaneously. If it didn't happen during 2008 or during COVID, chances are low it'll ever happen.pic.twitter.com/QsUyhSDI3s
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I say all this to applaud & admire the clearinghouse system. Its design is downright beautiful & it's been working quietly for decades now. I have no worries about clearinghouses blowing up anytime soon in their current structure.
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I'll be writing a premium post about CME's clearing process in the context of Ronin, its rise to prominence as a trading firm, and its peculiar downfall in the depths of March 2020. You can sign up below if interested:https://frontmonth.substack.com/
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End of conversation
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