CHs manage & process the risk associated with leveraged products like futures & swaps. If you trade with an OTC counterparty you take on default risk (your counterparty may not be able to pay if you win). CHs are valuable because they always pay.
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So to bring CME's clearinghouse down we would need losses surpassing: Our clearing member's capital CME's $100M contribution A $5 billion Guaranty Fund The funds of every other member called by assessment powers Our loss would have to be MANY billions of dollars to do this.
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This doesn't even consider the $180 BILLION of margin deposits held by the clearinghouse for other users throughout the system. If it truly came to that, CME could in theory start dipping into this $ to cover losses at the expense of other users.pic.twitter.com/jRs70Sz4IN
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Okay, hypothetical situation aside, has a CH come close to blowing up? Honestly, no. Not even CLOSE. Nasdaq's 2018 Nordic power blowup may be the biggest example:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordic-power-nasdaq/nasdaq-restores-nordic-clearing-buffer-after-power-trader-default-idUSKCN1LX0WD …
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A European power trader single handedly lost enough money to wipe out Nasdaq's small Member Default Fund (~$125 million). Members had to refill the fund or face default themselves. Nasdaq also spent $22 million refilling the fund with its own money.
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Other than this, there aren't many instances of clearinghouses losing money or facing collapse. Even in the height of COVID when big firms like Ronin blew up, it had no impact on CME's CH contribution or any other member funds.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html …
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The only way for a clearinghouse to truly collapse would be if MULTIPLE users & clearing members suffered ungodly losses simultaneously. If it didn't happen during 2008 or during COVID, chances are low it'll ever happen.pic.twitter.com/QsUyhSDI3s
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I say all this to applaud & admire the clearinghouse system. Its design is downright beautiful & it's been working quietly for decades now. I have no worries about clearinghouses blowing up anytime soon in their current structure.
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I'll be writing a premium post about CME's clearing process in the context of Ronin, its rise to prominence as a trading firm, and its peculiar downfall in the depths of March 2020. You can sign up below if interested:https://frontmonth.substack.com/
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End of conversation
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