Alright, I've had a chance to look through Virtu's Q2 results in more detail. Below is my post-earnings thesis on the stock explaining why I continue to own it & remain bullish over the next 12-36 months:
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Replying to @HideNotSlide
With due respect, repeating the content mgmt presents =/=analysis Some ideas of the right Qs to ask that might make you dig deeper on your $3 = $30 conclusion
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Replying to @tangentstyle2 @HideNotSlide
If the company makes $2.69 annualized EPS with $5.5mm ANTI/Day, then why did most recent $5.43mm ANTI/Day Q produce $2.52 of ann EPS?
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Replying to @tangentstyle2 @HideNotSlide
Similar Q on the extrapolation implications of the Q: Why was the comp $ at the top of their guided range when their revs are below the bottom of their estimate range?
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Replying to @tangentstyle2 @HideNotSlide
Is the $5.50 median ANTI/day credible? It reflects a series of pro formas that we can’t recreate w/ public data. How would you safety check it?
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Replying to @tangentstyle2 @HideNotSlide
Calling 21Q2 a worst case environment is simply not credible. It was a 68th %tile VIX, 30th %tile realized vol, and a 93rd %tile share volume quarter (4th best since 2011). How would you characterize that combined envi?
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Replying to @tangentstyle2 @HideNotSlide
Is it credible to CAGR their growth initiatives 15% off a base that included a top 2 ever options MM envi?
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Replying to @tangentstyle2 @HideNotSlide
Lastly, if the buyback is part of the story, the SBC is part of the expense. It’s a 20c annual EPS drag
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Replying to @tangentstyle2 @HideNotSlide
Not going to fight U on mult, agree CME expensive. Rather than dying on "this should get more mult" hill, just recognize other $ is just looking at mult history, seeing reg / headline risk and starting valuation at a disc to that history to own the stock today. It's just reality
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