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HideNotSlide's profile
Hide Not Slide
Hide Not Slide
Hide Not Slide
@HideNotSlide

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Hide Not Slide

@HideNotSlide

Helping investors become smarter & more informed about exchanges.

LOST IN THE CITADEL SECURITIES
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    1. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Jul 14

      Hide Not Slide Retweeted Buck 14001

      A good, no-BS thread explaining the bear angle for $COIN. I am long the stock and have a few counterpoints which I'll dive into below. h/t @Pigeonomics for referringhttps://twitter.com/eriz35/status/1415296398971621380 …

      Hide Not Slide added,

      Buck 14001 @eriz35
      Short Coinbase $COIN - Mini Thread 1/ Quick thesis/summary after convo with @LSValue and @Pigeonomics yesterday I have no position and will have no position.
      Show this thread
      3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Jul 14

      Eric bases his bear thesis on the slowdown in crypto volumes through June, which is real and ugly. May (and 2021 YTD) is likely an outlier period from a volume perspective.pic.twitter.com/BDQhojiQuq

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Jul 14

      The thing is, Jan-May 2021 was SUCH an outlier that volumes don't have to do much from here (and can even continue lower) for Coinbase to still have a 🔥 year. More detailed explanation below from a piece I wrote in May:pic.twitter.com/3GYn4WZp7f

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    4. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Jul 14

      I still think Coinbase can hit $6 billion in revenue this year based on crazy volumes in 1H 2021 and sluggish volumes in 2H. The 45% net margins I reference above is a bit high - if we cut that to 35% we get $6B x 35% = $2.1B in net income. $COIN mkt cap of $63B / 2.1 = 30x PE

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    5. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Jul 14

      Where I see good risk/reward is considering the prospect of more crypto blowups later in the year, which would take Coinbase's revenue past $6B and earnings much higher than $2.1B. Idk what will happen to crypto this year but odds are volatility will return.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Jul 14

      I also don't think $IBKR and $COIN are comparable, as Eric references in his thread. Interactive Brokers has ~1.5M users; Coinbase has ~56M. $IBKR is a mature futures & equity broker; $COIN is an exchange in an emerging asset w/more pricing power.

      6:38 AM - 14 Jul 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Shyam Sunder Buck 14001
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Buck 14001‏ @eriz35 Jul 14
          Replying to @HideNotSlide

          yes I almost didn't include it for that reason! It's a very well run co, they seem to have a good grasp of the fundamental needs for their business. Very clean balance sheet. I suspect the margins will shrink as competitors enter the space tho. I look at this as a macro trade.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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