Ellie Mae is The Big Kahuna - an all in one SaaS mortgage management platform for originators & supporting vendors. Clients can use Ellie Mae to underwrite, close & process all parts of an origination without leaving the platform. TLDR; ELLIE MAE = AUTOMATION PLATFORM
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With all this in mind, the question becomes 'why ICE?' I think the answer is two-fold: 1 - analog to digital transition experience 2 - clearinghouses
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ICE has a lot of experience electronifying inefficient markets, like futures, bonds, equities & options. Mortgages look like another instance of taking a paper process and putting it online, cutting a ton of costs by doing so even if it isn't a "market" like its other segments.
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MERS and Simplifile have a lot in common with ICE's derivatives clearinghouses. They act as databases/systems of record and involve a lot of legal/compliance burden. This makes them incredibly hard to disrupt once critical mass is reached.
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Another similarity with electronic markets is the idea of building network effects across a large customer base. Traders & back-office firms can be very set in their ways and have to be convinced to try a new way of doing business. ICE knows how to do that convincing well.
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I could see ICE putting MERS and Simplifile onto the Ellie Mae system to create one mortgage loan & back-office super platform that serves the whole pre & post-close cycle.pic.twitter.com/Tl5SmbJHaX
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Despite the upside I think the market is hesitant on ICE for two reasons: 1. Price - ICE paid too much for these deals 2. Saturation - too far along the mortgage S-curve
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On the Price front - ICE paid $11.5B for ~$600M in annual EBITDA of these combined businesses. While growth looks good for now, paying 19x EBITDA for anything is a hard sell. Growth has to be stellar for the deals to pay investors back.
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On the saturation front - where are we on the mortgage digitization S-curve? ICE thinks there's a large TAM left to fill here, but I'm not sure everyone agrees on what's achievable. MERS for example has 85% market share - is that extra 15% worth the high $ tag?pic.twitter.com/DhAPg89k5f
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The ICE mortgage debate is a hard one to decide - did Sprecher make a well-timed push into a market with plenty of room to run, or did he overpay for an already mature set of platforms with no overlap to his legacy exchanges?
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I'll be diving more into this debate in an upcoming premium post - sign up below before August 1 and get a 20% discount on the annual price:https://frontmonth.substack.com/1b8b8f63
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