ICE Mortgage Tech is made up of 3 businesses: 1. MERS - fully bought in 2016 for ~$200M 2. Simplifile - bought in 2019 for $335M 3. Ellie Mae - bought in 2020 for $11B (ICE's largest deal ever) What did an $11.5B outlay give ICE?
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On the Price front - ICE paid $11.5B for ~$600M in annual EBITDA of these combined businesses. While growth looks good for now, paying 19x EBITDA for anything is a hard sell. Growth has to be stellar for the deals to pay investors back.
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On the saturation front - where are we on the mortgage digitization S-curve? ICE thinks there's a large TAM left to fill here, but I'm not sure everyone agrees on what's achievable. MERS for example has 85% market share - is that extra 15% worth the high $ tag?pic.twitter.com/DhAPg89k5f
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The ICE mortgage debate is a hard one to decide - did Sprecher make a well-timed push into a market with plenty of room to run, or did he overpay for an already mature set of platforms with no overlap to his legacy exchanges?
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I'll be diving more into this debate in an upcoming premium post - sign up below before August 1 and get a 20% discount on the annual price:https://frontmonth.substack.com/1b8b8f63
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