I bought a *very small* starter position in Coinbase $COIN this morning at ~$240, and am willing to buy more if it continues dropping from here.
Here's my rationale:
-
Show this thread
-
First, the short term.
$COIN trades at ~$63 billion market cap @ current prices. I conservatively think they'll earn ~$4.7 billion in revenue & ~$2 billion in net income this year (model snippet below):pic.twitter.com/tjycpkOrlK
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likesShow this thread -
My volume projections are still pretty conservative given YTD performance. Volumes would need to fall off a cliff for Coinbase to not hit $5 billion in revenue this year. Possible, but unlikely.pic.twitter.com/1asD7MzJ9b
1 reply 0 retweets 1 likeShow this thread -
At $5 billion in revenue & conservative 45% net margins,
$COIN is currently trading for ~27x this year's earnings. Certainly not nosebleed valuations considering where it IPO'd.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likesShow this thread -
This year may very well be an anomaly volume-wise, but NO ONE knows what steady state crypto volumes should be. In the absence of a good long-term forecast, I turn to the Virtu principle:
$COIN is now a "cheap" crypto vol call option.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likesShow this thread -
Another benefit of owning
$COIN is I can be long crypto vol without betting on a particular coin. Bitcoin out of style? No problem, Ethereum made up a big % of Coinbase volumes last quarter. Etc etc with smaller coins in the future.1 reply 0 retweets 7 likesShow this thread -
Hide Not Slide Retweeted Alex Good
There's also the Coinbase user growth angle to consider, which has been strong as of late. Top position on the app store gives us clues:https://twitter.com/goodalexander/status/1392917656160833546?s=20 …
Hide Not Slide added,
Alex Good @goodalexanderI just bought a small$COIN vs$MSTR trade into Coinbase EPS. Binance DOJ investigation is probably source of incremental inflows. App has been glued to #1 finance app in US, top 5 in US for weeks. Big sell off for known reason (ARK unwind). Also@nope_its_lily said it'll beatShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 1 likeShow this thread -
Can it keep going down? Absolutely. Could volumes dry up? Absolutely. Is it cheap enough now to take the risk? I believe so. Questions/feedback welcome.
6 replies 0 retweets 4 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @HideNotSlide
$COIN and other charge a spread on each crypto trade. Shouldn't these spreads compress overtime, perhaps significantly? How are you modeling this? Thx and good luck.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
This is a good call out & is $COIN’s primary long term risk. Potential scenarios: 1) strong volumes balance/outweigh fee pressure 2) A strong retail brand can come with pricing power for a while 3) institutional biz grows & comes w/higher fees
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.