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HideNotSlide's profile
Hide Not Slide
Hide Not Slide
Hide Not Slide
@HideNotSlide

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Hide Not Slide

@HideNotSlide

Helping investors become smarter & more informed about exchanges.

LOST IN THE CITADEL SECURITIES
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    1. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

      I bought a *very small* starter position in Coinbase $COIN this morning at ~$240, and am willing to buy more if it continues dropping from here. Here's my rationale:

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

      First, the short term. $COIN trades at ~$63 billion market cap @ current prices. I conservatively think they'll earn ~$4.7 billion in revenue & ~$2 billion in net income this year (model snippet below):pic.twitter.com/tjycpkOrlK

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    3. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

      My volume projections are still pretty conservative given YTD performance. Volumes would need to fall off a cliff for Coinbase to not hit $5 billion in revenue this year. Possible, but unlikely.pic.twitter.com/1asD7MzJ9b

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    4. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

      At $5 billion in revenue & conservative 45% net margins, $COIN is currently trading for ~27x this year's earnings. Certainly not nosebleed valuations considering where it IPO'd.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    5. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

      This year may very well be an anomaly volume-wise, but NO ONE knows what steady state crypto volumes should be. In the absence of a good long-term forecast, I turn to the Virtu principle: $COIN is now a "cheap" crypto vol call option.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    6. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

      Another benefit of owning $COIN is I can be long crypto vol without betting on a particular coin. Bitcoin out of style? No problem, Ethereum made up a big % of Coinbase volumes last quarter. Etc etc with smaller coins in the future.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

      Hide Not Slide Retweeted Alex Good

      There's also the Coinbase user growth angle to consider, which has been strong as of late. Top position on the app store gives us clues:https://twitter.com/goodalexander/status/1392917656160833546?s=20 …

      Hide Not Slide added,

      Alex Good @goodalexander
      I just bought a small $COIN vs $MSTR trade into Coinbase EPS. Binance DOJ investigation is probably source of incremental inflows. App has been glued to #1 finance app in US, top 5 in US for weeks. Big sell off for known reason (ARK unwind). Also @nope_its_lily said it'll beat
      Show this thread
      7:32 AM - 17 May 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Robert Martin
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide May 17

          Can it keep going down? Absolutely. Could volumes dry up? Absolutely. Is it cheap enough now to take the risk? I believe so. Questions/feedback welcome.

          6 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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