Awesome, I look forward to reading. There's a perception that exchanges can serve as inflation hedges. How do you think about that?
-
-
Replying to @NeckarValue @MarcRuby
In my mind, exchanges have a lot of pricing power & largely fixed costs, making them a perfect inflation play. Many exchanges also have interest rate businesses which see higher trading volumes if rates rise. Others have talked about this on FinTwit as well (
@HorizonKinetics)1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes -
Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue and
One thing to keep in mind is the impact of inflation on the market data side of the industry. Data businesses gain a premium now in a ZIRP low growth environment, but I don't think they'll be as loved when they're consistently growing +4-5% in a world with 4% inflation.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Got it. Is there a company that you feel is really misunderstood by the market?
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
This has to be Virtu Financial for me. Their volatile results & lack of public comps make them hard to value, but huge retail demand has boosted their wholesale biz & they're expanding into new markets like options. We could see $5 EPS and a $40 stock this year. cc
@Dougielarge1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes -
Replying to @HideNotSlide @MarcRuby and
Followed! Does this business have blow-up risk? If I remember correctly, they bought Knight Capital's market maker business which blew up in 2012?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @NeckarValue @MarcRuby and
There is indeed blow-up risk, but I put the odds of an extreme event like that happening again at very low. Part of the DD process for companies like this is asking the question "how well do I trust management to prioritize operational excellence given the potential risks?"
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue and
Some background info on the KCG glitch & operational risks of exchanges below:pic.twitter.com/mQ4KEbep9V
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue and
Virtu bought KCG in 2017, a few years after the trading glitch. The strategy behind the deal was to expand their presence in ETF market making, which was (rightly) seen as a growth space worth investing in.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @HideNotSlide @MarcRuby and
Interesting. Looking forward to your
$VIRT write-up..
So which of the companies is your long-term favorite and why?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Bringing it back full circle, today my largest exchange holding is $ICE. I think the market is undervaluing their massive energy business and I like the Ellie Mae deal provided they can continue to execute. Valuation is not too excessive either at 25x this years earnings.
-
-
Replying to @HideNotSlide @MarcRuby and
Can any of these companies serve as a volatility hedge? I thought it would be
$CBOE but the "home of the VIX" is still below its 2020 high. What's going on there?1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @NeckarValue @MarcRuby and
CBOE's volatility products make it a unique exchange. In a way, CBOE is counter-counter-cyclical - VIX futures & SPX options see more interest when volatility is LOW, not high. 2020 vol ended up doing more damage than good for them, but this year things are starting to recover.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like - Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.